[Mick]

Why was the Fed Chief on 60 Minutes clamoring for Congress to do more a couple weeks ago. I believe that was in support of a 4th bill. I doubt he would have blown his wad advocating for something that if not done, everything would be fine.

I share everyone's cynicism surrounding DoL numbers, given that they come from the executive branch.  I don't trust it because they've started breaking it out by separate sets of numbers.  The most recent release (Thursday mornings, 8:30 EST) can be found at this URL-->
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is usually in the second paragraph (14.8%).  The more useful unemployment number refers to
total number of people claiming benefits in all programs.  For the week ending May 16 that number was was 29,965,415, a decrease of 991,744 from the previous week, which is a good sign.  Doesn't mean we've turned it around, doesn't mean there won't be a hit from the protests, doesn't mean that as things open up and more people get infected it will be better or worse, but it's a positive, one-week indication that the numbers are about a million better than the previous week. 

Incidentally, there were 1,534,449 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.  So...yeah.

As for Jay Powell, he has taken great pains to distance himself from the White House, as have, frankly, all of his predecssors.  Greenspan, Volcker, et. al. were famously independent, as they should be.  Powell has been uniformly negative on the economy.  He thinks we're in real trouble.  That they're even considering negative inflation rates is a real eye opener.  He said at the end of April that the second quarter would be not only the worst the country had ever seen, but that it would be "unprecedented."  He is saying we won't fully recover until the end of 2021.  They're talking about the Fed lending directly to businesses.  That would be a first.

And the Economist is saying that recent gains do not constitute a trend.

[Mick]

Why was the Fed Chief on 60 Minutes clamoring for Congress to do more a couple weeks ago. I believe that was in support of a 4th bill. I doubt he would have blown his wad advocating for something that if not done, everything would be fine.

I share everyone's cynicism surrounding DoL numbers, given that they come from the executive branch.  I don't trust it because they've started breaking it out by separate sets of numbers.  The most recent release (Thursday mornings, 8:30 EST) can be found at this URL-->
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is usually in the second paragraph (14.8%).  The more useful unemployment number refers to
total number of people claiming benefits in all programs.  For the week ending May 16 that number was was 29,965,415, a decrease of 991,744 from the previous week, which is a good sign.  Doesn't mean we've turned it around, doesn't mean there won't be a hit from the protests, doesn't mean that as things open up and more people get infected it will be better or worse, but it's a positive, one-week indication that the numbers are about a million better than the previous week. 

Incidentally, there were 1,534,449 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.  So...yeah.

As for Jay Powell, he has taken great pains to distance himself from the White House, as have, frankly, all of his predecssors.  Greenspan, Volcker, et. al. were famously independent, as they should be.  Powell has been uniformly negative on the economy.  He thinks we're in real trouble.  That they're even considering negative inflation rates is a real eye opener.  He said at the end of April that the second quarter would be not only the worst the country had ever seen, but that it would be "unprecedented."  He is saying we won't fully recover until the end of 2021.  They're talking about the Fed lending directly to businesses.  That would be a first.

And the Economist is saying that recent gains do not constitute a trend.