[M T]

If 85 guys got the virus in June, data suggests at least 45 of them would have very mild cases or cases without symptoms.   That number might even approach 70 or more.   Let's use 45.   The other 40 would have more extreme cases, but very few would require hospitalization.   Let's call that 10, which again is far above the rate of the data for the age group.  

What is your source of data for that age group?
South Korea data doesn't include hospitalization and has age groups 10-20 and 20-30.
NYC has a large age group of 18-44.  In that group, case rate (per 100K) is 2200; hospitalization rate is 244; death rate is 20.
So death rate is 8% of hospitalized (0.9% of case rate).  Hospitalized is about 11% of case rate.
(Unfortunately, I don't know stats for those that develop serious, permanent injuries to their lungs or other organs.)

NCAA indicates about 97K men and 86K women are Division I student-athletes.  Of those 183K, if all lived in NYC in spring 2020, and were representative of that age group, and were exposed at the rate of that city, about 4000 would get a case of COVID-19 (this is not claiming that 4000 would have the infection -- that number might be much higher -- nor am I claiming these numbers apply if all were infected).  Of those, 440 would be hospitalized, 36 would die.  Athletes might be more or less likely to have co-morbidities than the general population (probably fewer obese, but I wouldn't know about hypertension, etc.).  There are a higher percentage of athletes that are male than in the general population.

If you use the 50% asymptomatic estimates, then a team of 100 that get infected will have 50 with symptoms.  If we equate that with cases as found in NYC, then of those 50, about 5.5 would be hospitalized, and 0.44 would die.  (Across the PAC-12, that would be 5.3 would die.)

If you use the Stanford antibody study numbers, the team of 100 would only have about 2 that would be counted as cases, so about 0.22 would be hospitalized, 0.02 would die.   But the Stanford numbers would indicate 132K out of every 100K in NYC been infected.  (To be fair, testing protocols have changed in the last 2 months.)


As for timing, if 100 college men get sick in the summer, who is taking care of them?  I don't know what percentage of college-age people still live with their parents.  20yo men probably have parents in the 40-50 age range.   Without bothering to run the numbers, I think more parents would die than athletes.

My guess is at least a few will accidentally, or intentionally, discover a competitive advantage this season - COVID19 Antibodies

Like using steroids, some will pay heavily.

[M T]

If 85 guys got the virus in June, data suggests at least 45 of them would have very mild cases or cases without symptoms.   That number might even approach 70 or more.   Let's use 45.   The other 40 would have more extreme cases, but very few would require hospitalization.   Let's call that 10, which again is far above the rate of the data for the age group.  

What is your source of data for that age group?
South Korea data doesn't include hospitalization and has age groups 10-20 and 20-30.
NYC has a large age group of 18-44.  In that group, case rate (per 100K) is 2200; hospitalization rate is 244; death rate is 20.
So death rate is 8% of hospitalized (0.9% of case rate).  Hospitalized is about 11% of case rate.
(Unfortunately, I don't know stats for those that develop serious, permanent injuries to their lungs or other organs.)

NCAA indicates about 97K men and 86K women are Division I student-athletes.  Of those 183K, if all lived in NYC in spring 2020, and were representative of that age group, and were exposed at the rate of that city, about 4000 would get a case of COVID-19 (this is not claiming that 4000 would have the infection -- that number might be much higher -- nor am I claiming these numbers apply if all were infected).  Of those, 440 would be hospitalized, 36 would die.  Athletes might be more or less likely to have co-morbidities than the general population (probably fewer obese, but I wouldn't know about hypertension, etc.).  There are a higher percentage of athletes that are male than in the general population.

If you use the 50% asymptomatic estimates, then a team of 100 that get infected will have 50 with symptoms.  If we equate that with cases as found in NYC, then of those 50, about 5.5 would be hospitalized, and 0.44 would die.  (Across the PAC-12, that would be 5.3 would die.)

If you use the Stanford antibody study numbers, the team of 100 would only have about 2 that would be counted as cases, so about 0.22 would be hospitalized, 0.02 would die.   But the Stanford numbers would indicate 132K out of every 100K in NYC been infected.  (To be fair, testing protocols have changed in the last 2 months.)


As for timing, if 100 college men get sick in the summer, who is taking care of them?  I don't know what percentage of college-age people still live with their parents.  20yo men probably have parents in the 40-50 age range.   Without bothering to run the numbers, I think more parents would die than athletes.

My guess is at least a few will accidentally, or intentionally, discover a competitive advantage this season - COVID19 Antibodies

Like using steroids, some will pay heavily.