[M T]

2006Alum, although I agree with the concept of trying to time activities when things are relatively safer, and I appreciate your sharing what your best guess is, from my perspective, I worry that at least in the short-term, the local minima of cases has already passed.



We're already seeing a significant uptick in hospitalizations in SCC, about 1/3 more hospitalized in SCC that a week ago. To 2006Alum's point, one could argue that even with this uptick, the numbers in SCC are still great, and with more re-opening, things could get even worse in the months ahead.

Snorlax, perhaps the uptick is simply that the protocol for what patients are admitted has changed.  I don't see any uptick beyond a small bump in positive test results.   But you can see two bumps in the cases by specimen collection date.

Today's new hospitalizations are for transmissions from about 10 days ago (5 days to symptoms, 5 more days to pneumonia).
I don't track the LTCF numbers, but I haven't noticed a big jump in them, but maybe I wasn't paying attention.

I guess it is possible these are cases of vulnerable people that got exposed on Memorial Day (May 25).  But I don't yet see a bump in testing figures that corresponds.   The specimen collection dates have a bump on May 29 but that's a tad early.

An increase of 10 in hospitalizations should correspond to an increase of 50 in cases.  I just don't see it, at least not as an uptick of % positive.

SCC is still in the 1.0 to 1.3% positive tests results (week or 2-week average).  We did hit a low in those numbers on May 15 followed by a bump the next week as testing expanded, but the % fell the next week.  The last few days are up, but I see that positives came back sooner than negatives a week ago, so I kinda expect the last 4 days will fall in line.


By the way, Los Angeles County percent positive tests is continuing to climb for the last month. Up from 5.5% a month ago, to 8% now.

[M T]

2006Alum, although I agree with the concept of trying to time activities when things are relatively safer, and I appreciate your sharing what your best guess is, from my perspective, I worry that at least in the short-term, the local minima of cases has already passed.



We're already seeing a significant uptick in hospitalizations in SCC, about 1/3 more hospitalized in SCC that a week ago. To 2006Alum's point, one could argue that even with this uptick, the numbers in SCC are still great, and with more re-opening, things could get even worse in the months ahead.

Snorlax, perhaps the uptick is simply that the protocol for what patients are admitted has changed.  I don't see any uptick beyond a small bump in positive test results.   But you can see two bumps in the cases by specimen collection date.

Today's new hospitalizations are for transmissions from about 10 days ago (5 days to symptoms, 5 more days to pneumonia).
I don't track the LTCF numbers, but I haven't noticed a big jump in them, but maybe I wasn't paying attention.

I guess it is possible these are cases of vulnerable people that got exposed on Memorial Day (May 25).  But I don't yet see a bump in testing figures that corresponds.   The specimen collection dates have a bump on May 29 but that's a tad early.

An increase of 10 in hospitalizations should correspond to an increase of 50 in cases.  I just don't see it, at least not as an uptick of % positive.

SCC is still in the 1.0 to 1.3% positive tests results (week or 2-week average).  We did hit a low in those numbers on May 15 followed by a bump the next week as testing expanded, but the % fell the next week.  The last few days are up, but I see that positives came back sooner than negatives a week ago, so I kinda expect the last 4 days will fall in line.


By the way, Los Angeles County percent positive tests is continuing to climb for the last month. Up from 5.5% a month ago, to 8% now.