[Farm93]

F1 is back on July 5th. It's got probably the biggest challenge of any sport since it has to travel from country to country and F1 teams are pretty damn big.  They can do their distancing at the track, but the hotels and planes will be risky.

I'm assuming college campuses and their sports have a high chance of having bad outcomes, for reasons discussed here already.

The NBA has the best chance of avoiding problems with its bubble plan, but even that isn't full proof, because you only need one infection in the bubble and it could be a problem.

The rate of active COVID cases in those coming back voluntarily suggests this whole hybrid model will not work.   It is not going to work for the athletes, the sports or the universities.   :(

A few campuses opened up last week and already several universities report several athletes have tested positive.   And presumably all of these athletes are in rather good physical health and returned to campus ASAP to start rigorous training. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/us/univer...index.html

Imagine what will happen in August/September when students from all over the world, some in less than great shape, report to campus because classes are about to start and if they do not show up they may not be allowed to enroll.   
How many of them (all schools not just Stanford) will get tested as often as these first few D1 athletes?

If I was a coach, I would stress to all of my athletes that we really want them back on campus ASAP to get tested, and if applicable treatment.    I would anticipate that this whole testing and isolation program won't work and the team will lose July to positive COVID tests.    For a coach that's a relatively viable option.  

Maybe a coach is willing to risk his/her health to work with athletes outdoors or in a massive indoor arena, especially given their healthy compensation is tied to winning.   

Would a college professor want to take on a similar risk to teach undergrads, especially if they are working on multi-million research projects?

If a relatively small pool of athletes is producing dozens of cases what will happen in August?  How many cases would a school need to see before they have to just shut everything down?  How many positive cases would need to be floating around a college at the start of a term before parents, or the students themselves, decide to opt out?

[Farm93]

F1 is back on July 5th. It's got probably the biggest challenge of any sport since it has to travel from country to country and F1 teams are pretty damn big.  They can do their distancing at the track, but the hotels and planes will be risky.

I'm assuming college campuses and their sports have a high chance of having bad outcomes, for reasons discussed here already.

The NBA has the best chance of avoiding problems with its bubble plan, but even that isn't full proof, because you only need one infection in the bubble and it could be a problem.

The rate of active COVID cases in those coming back voluntarily suggests this whole hybrid model will not work.   It is not going to work for the athletes, the sports or the universities.   :(

A few campuses opened up last week and already several universities report several athletes have tested positive.   And presumably all of these athletes are in rather good physical health and returned to campus ASAP to start rigorous training. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/us/univer...index.html

Imagine what will happen in August/September when students from all over the world, some in less than great shape, report to campus because classes are about to start and if they do not show up they may not be allowed to enroll.   
How many of them (all schools not just Stanford) will get tested as often as these first few D1 athletes?

If I was a coach, I would stress to all of my athletes that we really want them back on campus ASAP to get tested, and if applicable treatment.    I would anticipate that this whole testing and isolation program won't work and the team will lose July to positive COVID tests.    For a coach that's a relatively viable option.  

Maybe a coach is willing to risk his/her health to work with athletes outdoors or in a massive indoor arena, especially given their healthy compensation is tied to winning.   

Would a college professor want to take on a similar risk to teach undergrads, especially if they are working on multi-million research projects?

If a relatively small pool of athletes is producing dozens of cases what will happen in August?  How many cases would a school need to see before they have to just shut everything down?  How many positive cases would need to be floating around a college at the start of a term before parents, or the students themselves, decide to opt out?