[M T]

2006Alum, although I agree with the concept of trying to time activities when things are relatively safer, and I appreciate your sharing what your best guess is, from my perspective, I worry that at least in the short-term, the local minima of cases has already passed.





We're already seeing a significant uptick in hospitalizations in SCC, about 1/3 more hospitalized in SCC that a week ago. To 2006Alum's point, one could argue that even with this uptick, the numbers in SCC are still great, and with more re-opening, things could get even worse in the months ahead.

Snorlax, perhaps the uptick is simply that the protocol for what patients are admitted has changed.  I don't see any uptick beyond a small bump in positive test results.   But you can see two bumps in the cases by specimen collection date.



Today's new hospitalizations are for transmissions from about 10 days ago (5 days to symptoms, 5 more days to pneumonia).

I don't track the LTCF numbers, but I haven't noticed a big jump in them, but maybe I wasn't paying attention.

I just looked closer at SCC hospitalization numbers.  ICU numbers are up as well as.  While I can imagine easily justifying admitting more patients into the hospital.  It seems less likely for patients to be more freely moved to ICU.

The timing suggests the transmissions were possibly Memorial Day weekend.  ICU COVID patients are up by 13 while acute bed COVID patients are up about 18.   That suggests to me that an outbreak occurred among more vulnerable people, possibly in a LTCF.  However, the SCC LTCF indicates only 4 cases in the last week.  The state reports only 6 new cases in Skilled Nursing Facilities in SCC in the last week (+ 6 health care workers as well). [It isn't clear to me that SNF includes the LTCF (I think not).  Total cases listed at SCC in this residential care facility data wasn't much.]

From May 29 to June 5, acute beds for Covid usage has been  36, 31, 27, 31, 29, (June 3) 40, 50, 48
ICU beds for Covid usage has been  14, 11, 11, 11, (June 2) 17, 14, 21, 24

June 4 was 10 days after Monday, May 25 (Memorial Day).  (10 days is roughly when pneumonia sets in after exposure.)   I now figure that weekend probably saw an increase in transmissions.    I know my next door neighbor had non-household visitors that weekend.

[M T]

2006Alum, although I agree with the concept of trying to time activities when things are relatively safer, and I appreciate your sharing what your best guess is, from my perspective, I worry that at least in the short-term, the local minima of cases has already passed.





We're already seeing a significant uptick in hospitalizations in SCC, about 1/3 more hospitalized in SCC that a week ago. To 2006Alum's point, one could argue that even with this uptick, the numbers in SCC are still great, and with more re-opening, things could get even worse in the months ahead.

Snorlax, perhaps the uptick is simply that the protocol for what patients are admitted has changed.  I don't see any uptick beyond a small bump in positive test results.   But you can see two bumps in the cases by specimen collection date.



Today's new hospitalizations are for transmissions from about 10 days ago (5 days to symptoms, 5 more days to pneumonia).

I don't track the LTCF numbers, but I haven't noticed a big jump in them, but maybe I wasn't paying attention.

I just looked closer at SCC hospitalization numbers.  ICU numbers are up as well as.  While I can imagine easily justifying admitting more patients into the hospital.  It seems less likely for patients to be more freely moved to ICU.

The timing suggests the transmissions were possibly Memorial Day weekend.  ICU COVID patients are up by 13 while acute bed COVID patients are up about 18.   That suggests to me that an outbreak occurred among more vulnerable people, possibly in a LTCF.  However, the SCC LTCF indicates only 4 cases in the last week.  The state reports only 6 new cases in Skilled Nursing Facilities in SCC in the last week (+ 6 health care workers as well). [It isn't clear to me that SNF includes the LTCF (I think not).  Total cases listed at SCC in this residential care facility data wasn't much.]

From May 29 to June 5, acute beds for Covid usage has been  36, 31, 27, 31, 29, (June 3) 40, 50, 48
ICU beds for Covid usage has been  14, 11, 11, 11, (June 2) 17, 14, 21, 24

June 4 was 10 days after Monday, May 25 (Memorial Day).  (10 days is roughly when pneumonia sets in after exposure.)   I now figure that weekend probably saw an increase in transmissions.    I know my next door neighbor had non-household visitors that weekend.