[Goose]

Given how crucial super spreaders are to the spread and speed of the outbreak, imagine if even a third of them were wearing masks. It would certainly slow the speed of the outbreak. Don't think masks alone can stop it, but perhaps can give more time for track and trace, or at least more time for health care systems to gear up, and public health measures to be instituted.

I totally agree that it will certainly help. I am not sure how much, but to not take advantage of whatever it does deliver would be foolish. Right now, it (and whatever social distancing is possible) is really all we have to mitigate spread as we return to a more "normal" social and commercial situation. I would be much happier if we had enough track and trace resources to get positive cases into quarantine quickly and to make sure that the vast majority of the people to whom they may have spread the disease are also in quarantine until they either have the disease or "age out". Without that, I fear we will maintain a "significant" level of disease. If Rt hovers near one, we can survive it, but if it goes up to even 1.1 we will be in a world of hurt eventually.

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Until fairly recently wearing a mask was considered ineffective for the general public.

Ineffective at preventing the wearer from acquiring the disease. Which they are. But they're apparently pretty effective at preventing the wearer from spreading the disease.

I think it says something about our culture, government, and institutions that for a month or more in a pandemic the only thought was about point #1, and not point #2.

At least here on the Cardboard I think we have been pretty clear on #2 for quite a while. I think the general public actually DOES understand that. Unfortunately I think much of the general public looks at it as follows: "I don't have COVID-19 so I don't care about #2. Since masks are not effective for #1, no reason I should wear one." The problem is, obviously, for a small number of people the "I don't have COVID-19" part becomes false. Statistically, it isn't a big number, but integrated across the populace, it is enough to spread the epidemic. Many people just don't get that. It won't happen to them. How we combat that I don't know.

[Goose]

Given how crucial super spreaders are to the spread and speed of the outbreak, imagine if even a third of them were wearing masks. It would certainly slow the speed of the outbreak. Don't think masks alone can stop it, but perhaps can give more time for track and trace, or at least more time for health care systems to gear up, and public health measures to be instituted.

I totally agree that it will certainly help. I am not sure how much, but to not take advantage of whatever it does deliver would be foolish. Right now, it (and whatever social distancing is possible) is really all we have to mitigate spread as we return to a more "normal" social and commercial situation. I would be much happier if we had enough track and trace resources to get positive cases into quarantine quickly and to make sure that the vast majority of the people to whom they may have spread the disease are also in quarantine until they either have the disease or "age out". Without that, I fear we will maintain a "significant" level of disease. If Rt hovers near one, we can survive it, but if it goes up to even 1.1 we will be in a world of hurt eventually.

---

Until fairly recently wearing a mask was considered ineffective for the general public.

Ineffective at preventing the wearer from acquiring the disease. Which they are. But they're apparently pretty effective at preventing the wearer from spreading the disease.

I think it says something about our culture, government, and institutions that for a month or more in a pandemic the only thought was about point #1, and not point #2.

At least here on the Cardboard I think we have been pretty clear on #2 for quite a while. I think the general public actually DOES understand that. Unfortunately I think much of the general public looks at it as follows: "I don't have COVID-19 so I don't care about #2. Since masks are not effective for #1, no reason I should wear one." The problem is, obviously, for a small number of people the "I don't have COVID-19" part becomes false. Statistically, it isn't a big number, but integrated across the populace, it is enough to spread the epidemic. Many people just don't get that. It won't happen to them. How we combat that I don't know.