[Farm93]

Yeah this is terrible news. Along with the recent flare-up in Korea, it makes me convinced there’s no way we can get to stage 3 and stay there. If an advanced, experienced country with model contact tracing and testing (and far greater cooperation from its citizens) cannot stay in stage 3, and if an authoritarian government with control over its citizens cannot maintain containment, this bodes very poorly for the US.

I really didn't believe your typical USA citizen would do enough to contain the spread.    Most in Asia understand the potential dangers of a pandemic that originated in China.    And yet it has still been very hard for them to keep things under control even with amazing dedication to testing AND tracing.

China more or less was OK, but their economy now depends on trade.   It is just too easy for people in other places to bring the disease back to China.   I don't think it is a coincidence that Beijing is the place with a problem.    I would have bet on Shanghai or Beijing just because of the nature of travel.

Fast forward to October and all the world will need is one or two countries with cases to then spread the 2nd wave all over the northern hemisphere.

Brazil was always going to be a candidate for spread.   India was likely to have cases over the next few months.  That will be a very scary situation given their population density.    If the USA is the third country then the global outbreak seems certain to happen.    Companies and countries can avoid travel to Brazil and India, but those Americans tourists, expats, and military tend to travel quite a bit.   That'd be three countries providing the pandemic spread, and that feels like one or two too many to avoid a second wave.

I will be diligently squirreling away my family's PPE supplies for the coming winter.  Hopefully we won't need it, but buying the items now should be easier than in October if that northern hemisphere second wave emerges.

[Farm93]

Yeah this is terrible news. Along with the recent flare-up in Korea, it makes me convinced there’s no way we can get to stage 3 and stay there. If an advanced, experienced country with model contact tracing and testing (and far greater cooperation from its citizens) cannot stay in stage 3, and if an authoritarian government with control over its citizens cannot maintain containment, this bodes very poorly for the US.

I really didn't believe your typical USA citizen would do enough to contain the spread.    Most in Asia understand the potential dangers of a pandemic that originated in China.    And yet it has still been very hard for them to keep things under control even with amazing dedication to testing AND tracing.

China more or less was OK, but their economy now depends on trade.   It is just too easy for people in other places to bring the disease back to China.   I don't think it is a coincidence that Beijing is the place with a problem.    I would have bet on Shanghai or Beijing just because of the nature of travel.

Fast forward to October and all the world will need is one or two countries with cases to then spread the 2nd wave all over the northern hemisphere.

Brazil was always going to be a candidate for spread.   India was likely to have cases over the next few months.  That will be a very scary situation given their population density.    If the USA is the third country then the global outbreak seems certain to happen.    Companies and countries can avoid travel to Brazil and India, but those Americans tourists, expats, and military tend to travel quite a bit.   That'd be three countries providing the pandemic spread, and that feels like one or two too many to avoid a second wave.

I will be diligently squirreling away my family's PPE supplies for the coming winter.  Hopefully we won't need it, but buying the items now should be easier than in October if that northern hemisphere second wave emerges.