[M T]

Well, better than doing nothing I guess. I would once again wonder why the SCC Health Department doesn't make it an order, even if Newsom won't. Call it a big hint that maybe they should?

Look for it, maybe.  The SCC Health Officer has indicated a new order will be out probably Tues or Wed. to take effect a few days later. The hint was that some things will be/remain closed that are open elsewhere.  Not sure if anything will close that was previously open, or whether she just meant things still closed here but open elsewhere.

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If you didn't see it, the Calif. data base was down (for maintenance) so SCC couldn't report numbers yesterday. So, today's numbers are for a 2 day period.  135 new cases  (so 67.5 per day),  no new deaths, 82 hospitalized (up 10 I think) (49 acute, 26 ICU, 7 elsewhere).  Latest partial day's test is about (just under) 2% positive.  Previous day to that (still partial) is over 3%.

It looks like LTCF outbreak may be slowing down. In the 2 days, there was 1 more patient & 1 more staff with cases at the hot spot. One of the places that had only staff cases now has at least one patient case.  (I didn't recall the number of LTCF cases, so I can't say exactly how many new cases there are.)

I think things are less hot than a few days ago, but it is too early to tell if this just is a lull before another big jump, or maybe we're easing back a bit, or maybe I'm just misreading the partial results.

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By the way, for those who don't know what's being done on contact tracing (and so tend to think nothing is being done), I've been watching the Tuolumne County info.  In the last week they essentially tripled the number of total cases (from 8 to 22).   The county was putting up a short bit about the cases, and it was very clear they were on top of these (local woman at a big family gathering resulting in infection of her & others;  4 clusters popped up; then an out-of-area person developed symptoms at a multi-day event & went in for test & care).

I expect that sort of test, trace, isolate is going on in SCC (and throughout the country) but we just don't hear about it.

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Assuming one of the biggest drivers are gatherings inside private homes of many households (and more than 10 people), how do you limit that?


The only thing I can think of is a curfew -- maybe you need to leave by 8:30pm driving (except for work or essential activities) and 9:30pm for walking in neighborhoods. If indeed 20 and 30-somethings are driving the growth with socializing and house parties, a curfew could dent that. Curfews feel like a good "stick" that might work.



But we need to do something soon: Easter, Memorial Day and Mother's Day all resulted in upticks, and the July 4 holiday weekend is coming.

In most(not all) of the orders I've looked at, "gatherings" include gatherings inside private homes or on private property.   The "bubble" concept (in some counties) muddies the meaning of a "gathering".  ("Oh officer, we're all in the same bubble. ... Well, I know most of them...")

I absolutely agree about July 4.  We're probably too late to get orders to affect that, but maybe SCC might say something.

I've been hearing a lot of big (professional?) fireworks at night.   These private fireworks displays seem like a nucleus for gatherings ("The city isn't having fireworks, but I am.  C'mon over.  Bring the beer.")   I hope the various police & fire departments staff up for July 3-5 and look for gatherings where there are fireworks.   (Rather than cite each individual, cite the property owner.)

[M T]

Well, better than doing nothing I guess. I would once again wonder why the SCC Health Department doesn't make it an order, even if Newsom won't. Call it a big hint that maybe they should?

Look for it, maybe.  The SCC Health Officer has indicated a new order will be out probably Tues or Wed. to take effect a few days later. The hint was that some things will be/remain closed that are open elsewhere.  Not sure if anything will close that was previously open, or whether she just meant things still closed here but open elsewhere.

--------
If you didn't see it, the Calif. data base was down (for maintenance) so SCC couldn't report numbers yesterday. So, today's numbers are for a 2 day period.  135 new cases  (so 67.5 per day),  no new deaths, 82 hospitalized (up 10 I think) (49 acute, 26 ICU, 7 elsewhere).  Latest partial day's test is about (just under) 2% positive.  Previous day to that (still partial) is over 3%.

It looks like LTCF outbreak may be slowing down. In the 2 days, there was 1 more patient & 1 more staff with cases at the hot spot. One of the places that had only staff cases now has at least one patient case.  (I didn't recall the number of LTCF cases, so I can't say exactly how many new cases there are.)

I think things are less hot than a few days ago, but it is too early to tell if this just is a lull before another big jump, or maybe we're easing back a bit, or maybe I'm just misreading the partial results.

-----

By the way, for those who don't know what's being done on contact tracing (and so tend to think nothing is being done), I've been watching the Tuolumne County info.  In the last week they essentially tripled the number of total cases (from 8 to 22).   The county was putting up a short bit about the cases, and it was very clear they were on top of these (local woman at a big family gathering resulting in infection of her & others;  4 clusters popped up; then an out-of-area person developed symptoms at a multi-day event & went in for test & care).

I expect that sort of test, trace, isolate is going on in SCC (and throughout the country) but we just don't hear about it.

---

Assuming one of the biggest drivers are gatherings inside private homes of many households (and more than 10 people), how do you limit that?


The only thing I can think of is a curfew -- maybe you need to leave by 8:30pm driving (except for work or essential activities) and 9:30pm for walking in neighborhoods. If indeed 20 and 30-somethings are driving the growth with socializing and house parties, a curfew could dent that. Curfews feel like a good "stick" that might work.



But we need to do something soon: Easter, Memorial Day and Mother's Day all resulted in upticks, and the July 4 holiday weekend is coming.

In most(not all) of the orders I've looked at, "gatherings" include gatherings inside private homes or on private property.   The "bubble" concept (in some counties) muddies the meaning of a "gathering".  ("Oh officer, we're all in the same bubble. ... Well, I know most of them...")

I absolutely agree about July 4.  We're probably too late to get orders to affect that, but maybe SCC might say something.

I've been hearing a lot of big (professional?) fireworks at night.   These private fireworks displays seem like a nucleus for gatherings ("The city isn't having fireworks, but I am.  C'mon over.  Bring the beer.")   I hope the various police & fire departments staff up for July 3-5 and look for gatherings where there are fireworks.   (Rather than cite each individual, cite the property owner.)