[oregontim]

Interesting also about Q1 for Sweden (thanks Mick) as the only positive bar on the chart. The Sweden example has appeared on this board as an alternative answer to the health vs. jobs dilemma, one that some thought was an alternative to the March-May shutdown. The Sweden question is turning now towards whether or not they optimized jobs at all, while sacrificing health. Maybe they just postponed the health measures until later, and will suffer them worse over the long term, for not having clamped down early on. Time will tell. 

What if they and a lot of us — many in the USA, this board  too — got the health vs. jobs comparisons dilemma wrong? What if, as it turns out, more stringent pandemic response would have been the optimal for both health and jobs? As we look at it today, doesn't this chart argue for a more stringent shutdown which would have been followed by a better health situation and a better economy later?



If so, too bad, this is just hindsight. We don't get a time machine to go back and do it right. My point is even if we are disastrously late, we might still be better off if we were to start today and do better from now on. Our trajectory right now sucks. Do we have to keep going this way, so we'll have to look back to this time and bemoan what we didn't do?

I heard that Pence today publicly advocated using masks. About damn time. Obviously too little and too late, but at least it's a change of direction and better late than never. I'm still hoping we get out of this without millions of deaths and crippling the economy for a very long time.

To borrow from an old African proverb, the best time to do this was last March. The second best time is today.

[oregontim]

Interesting also about Q1 for Sweden (thanks Mick) as the only positive bar on the chart. The Sweden example has appeared on this board as an alternative answer to the health vs. jobs dilemma, one that some thought was an alternative to the March-May shutdown. The Sweden question is turning now towards whether or not they optimized jobs at all, while sacrificing health. Maybe they just postponed the health measures until later, and will suffer them worse over the long term, for not having clamped down early on. Time will tell. 

What if they and a lot of us — many in the USA, this board  too — got the health vs. jobs comparisons dilemma wrong? What if, as it turns out, more stringent pandemic response would have been the optimal for both health and jobs? As we look at it today, doesn't this chart argue for a more stringent shutdown which would have been followed by a better health situation and a better economy later?



If so, too bad, this is just hindsight. We don't get a time machine to go back and do it right. My point is even if we are disastrously late, we might still be better off if we were to start today and do better from now on. Our trajectory right now sucks. Do we have to keep going this way, so we'll have to look back to this time and bemoan what we didn't do?

I heard that Pence today publicly advocated using masks. About damn time. Obviously too little and too late, but at least it's a change of direction and better late than never. I'm still hoping we get out of this without millions of deaths and crippling the economy for a very long time.

To borrow from an old African proverb, the best time to do this was last March. The second best time is today.