(06-29-2020, 10:56 PM)BostonCard Wrote: This article may have already been posted, but if not it suggests reasonable success at test and tracing in the Bay Area.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/artic...372556.php
I posted that in its own thread on Contact Tracing, along with the Mercury News article that gives a less rosy picture. The SFChronicle article's rosy picture is "Many local counties are approaching their goal of contacting 90% of the region’s positive cases, while others are still scrambling to ramp up their contact-tracing operations."
but then look at the article's data:
- Alameda County’s .. contact tracers were able to reach about 85% of cases as of Wednesday.
- Marin County, ... reached 70% of confirmed cases and only 46% of their contacts in the past two weeks.
- Contra Costa County contacted 74% of confirmed cases and 68% of their contacts in the first three weeks of June.
The article doesn't indicate how quickly they get to the contacts.
The SJMN article also has this data
- San Francisco’s dashboard reports the percentage of new cases and their contacts that health officials reach — both currently 83%, short of the city’s 90% goal. But it doesn’t indicate how quickly the connections are made.
I'm not sure if this is a new page, but it is new to me. SCC has a Five Key Indicators page "for Assessing Progress on Containing COVID-19", that is being tracked for each of the Bay Area counties. Indicator 4 is on tracking.
I was disappointed this was the only indicator that didn't have data behind it. It indicated the infrastructure must be designed to accomplish
- We reach at least 90% of cases and identify their contacts;
- We ensure 90% of the cases that we reach can safely isolate;
- We reach at least 90% of all contacts identified; and
- We ensure at least 90% of identified contacts can safely quarantine.
And, to see that contact tracing works, see LA County. They're contacting 98.1% of their cases each day, within a day (oh, sorry, within a day of assignment). Of course, it was easier last week.
- June 29 (latest numbers), they announced 2903 new cases.
- A week before (June 22), it was a leisurely 2571 cases.
- A week before (June 15) was in the doldrums, 1071 cases.
- A week before (June 8), 823 cases.
If you don't get my drift, I wonder if LA Co is BBQing on the beach the numbers they give the state. Today, the state was finally told the percent positive in LACo is 8.2%, the first time they've reported above 8% or higher to the state. (Per the county's website, in 29 days, they've been below 8% one day. They've been 9% or higher for 16 days.)
Whatever they've been smoking there on the beach, they seemed to have passed it to this tracking site as well. Look at those COVID infection rate ( R ) numbers. The entire month of June has been between 1.02 and 1.05, meaning "that COVID continues to spread, but in a slow and controlled fashion."
