[Goose]

SiP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible, that's why I believe it is coming.

Too many are defeatist at this point.  They just assume our new normal is to have the equivalent of a Stanford Stadium worth of new cases each day, and therefore they don't even try to slow the spread.   If more and more just give up the battle then at some point someone with real authority will have to attempt 2.0 for the good of the nation.

The Alabama Coronavirus parties might exemplify the challenge now.  The idea they exist suggests we need to do a bit more on science and medicine education for our children in the future, and need to require a national shelter in place ASAP.   No questions, no debates, get in your homes for 90 days or else we will get those Italian mayors to yell at you.

The Federal Government has no authority to do such a thing, but if they advocated it strongly enough the States would (probably) comply. However, the mayors yelling wasn't enough (and be aware that one of the "mayors" in the video was actually the governor  of Campagna). It took troops in the streets (and those troops are still there). You still need paperwork to cross state lines. Previously you needed it to be more than 5k from home. Same thing in France. Does Newsom have that kind of resolve? I doubt it, and even if he did I don't think the rest of the politicians would support him.

I think the far more probable scenarios are a) we limp along as is for a long time, and then go pure Sweden, or b) we do what it takes to set up a very large and draconian track and trace program. That program would have wide enforcement power and would use it. That would be more politically palatable because it would affect many fewer people. Really, if the population doesn't want to cooperate adequately in flattening the curve, that is the only choice that could work IMHO.

The third scenario is what Trump bet on, namely that we get lucky. So far, isn't looking good.

[Goose]

SiP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible, that's why I believe it is coming.

Too many are defeatist at this point.  They just assume our new normal is to have the equivalent of a Stanford Stadium worth of new cases each day, and therefore they don't even try to slow the spread.   If more and more just give up the battle then at some point someone with real authority will have to attempt 2.0 for the good of the nation.

The Alabama Coronavirus parties might exemplify the challenge now.  The idea they exist suggests we need to do a bit more on science and medicine education for our children in the future, and need to require a national shelter in place ASAP.   No questions, no debates, get in your homes for 90 days or else we will get those Italian mayors to yell at you.

The Federal Government has no authority to do such a thing, but if they advocated it strongly enough the States would (probably) comply. However, the mayors yelling wasn't enough (and be aware that one of the "mayors" in the video was actually the governor  of Campagna). It took troops in the streets (and those troops are still there). You still need paperwork to cross state lines. Previously you needed it to be more than 5k from home. Same thing in France. Does Newsom have that kind of resolve? I doubt it, and even if he did I don't think the rest of the politicians would support him.

I think the far more probable scenarios are a) we limp along as is for a long time, and then go pure Sweden, or b) we do what it takes to set up a very large and draconian track and trace program. That program would have wide enforcement power and would use it. That would be more politically palatable because it would affect many fewer people. Really, if the population doesn't want to cooperate adequately in flattening the curve, that is the only choice that could work IMHO.

The third scenario is what Trump bet on, namely that we get lucky. So far, isn't looking good.