[BostonCard]

The Swedish prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the failure of their no lockdown strategy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-o...own-2020-7

With 537 deaths per million people, Sweden’s death rate is approaching Italy’s and Spain’s.

BC

We're at 399 deaths per million.  How soon before we hit Belgium/UK/Italy/Spain/Sweden's death rates?

We are currently averaging about 600 deaths per day (7 day rolling average), so that is about 2 deaths per million per day.  At this pace, it will take us about 2 months to reach a cumulative 520 deaths per million, and about 3.5 months to reach 600 deaths per million, which is where Spain is.  Belgium is at 843 deaths per million (what the hell happened in Belgium hasn’t been discussed enough), so at the current pace it would take us over 6 months to get there.

Of course, the current death rate will not remain constant.  It has been declining (and has continued to do so, albeit at a slower pace, even as the number of cases has increased).  If it starts rising again, as new patients succumb to CoVID-19, it will happens faster.  If the death rate continues to decline (or this case count starts to decline as individuals and communities shut down again),  then it might take longer, or we may never get there.  Lastly, while the mortality rate in most of Europe (Outside Sweden) is small enough not to make that much of a difference, there may we’ll be a second spike in Europe, in which case deaths there may well spike again.

BC

[BostonCard]

The Swedish prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the failure of their no lockdown strategy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-o...own-2020-7

With 537 deaths per million people, Sweden’s death rate is approaching Italy’s and Spain’s.

BC

We're at 399 deaths per million.  How soon before we hit Belgium/UK/Italy/Spain/Sweden's death rates?

We are currently averaging about 600 deaths per day (7 day rolling average), so that is about 2 deaths per million per day.  At this pace, it will take us about 2 months to reach a cumulative 520 deaths per million, and about 3.5 months to reach 600 deaths per million, which is where Spain is.  Belgium is at 843 deaths per million (what the hell happened in Belgium hasn’t been discussed enough), so at the current pace it would take us over 6 months to get there.

Of course, the current death rate will not remain constant.  It has been declining (and has continued to do so, albeit at a slower pace, even as the number of cases has increased).  If it starts rising again, as new patients succumb to CoVID-19, it will happens faster.  If the death rate continues to decline (or this case count starts to decline as individuals and communities shut down again),  then it might take longer, or we may never get there.  Lastly, while the mortality rate in most of Europe (Outside Sweden) is small enough not to make that much of a difference, there may we’ll be a second spike in Europe, in which case deaths there may well spike again.

BC