07-08-2020, 11:15 AM
Both of the statements are probably true. It's not like during the pandemic heart attacks, strokes, drug overdoses, asthma exacerbations, bacterial pneumonias, and all the other reasons that people go to the hospital have stopped. It's just that on top of that we have COVID-19.
What I disagree with is the implication that having 15 - 20% of hospitalized cases be COVID shows that it is no big deal. By way of comparison, there are 36 million hospitalizations in the US per year on average, of which about 500,000 are due to influenza. Even if you restrict it to the flu season (October through May), influenza only makes up about 3% of hospitalizations, so the fact that 15 - 20% of Texas hospital patients have something to do with COVID-19 is a big deal!
He is also correct that the death rate has not gone up. We will see if we start seeing an increase this week (Tuesday's numbers were the highest in a few weeks, but probably represent delayed reporting during the three-day week end), but through last week, the weekly death numbers had been decreasing since April.
Where I think he is misleading is saying "We know that the infection-fatality rate for people under 70 is 0.04 percent — that’s less than or equal to the seasonal flu,” That is true, but it lumps in pediatric cases where the infection fatality rate is 0.001% (much lower than influenza), and 60 - 69 year olds, where the IFR is 0.9%, which is substantially higher than influenza. The rate doesn't get down to 0.04% until you get to 40 - 49 year olds, and as phrased by Atlas, it might give 50 - 69 year olds the false impression that their risk of death is as low as the flu.
BC
What I disagree with is the implication that having 15 - 20% of hospitalized cases be COVID shows that it is no big deal. By way of comparison, there are 36 million hospitalizations in the US per year on average, of which about 500,000 are due to influenza. Even if you restrict it to the flu season (October through May), influenza only makes up about 3% of hospitalizations, so the fact that 15 - 20% of Texas hospital patients have something to do with COVID-19 is a big deal!
He is also correct that the death rate has not gone up. We will see if we start seeing an increase this week (Tuesday's numbers were the highest in a few weeks, but probably represent delayed reporting during the three-day week end), but through last week, the weekly death numbers had been decreasing since April.
Where I think he is misleading is saying "We know that the infection-fatality rate for people under 70 is 0.04 percent — that’s less than or equal to the seasonal flu,” That is true, but it lumps in pediatric cases where the infection fatality rate is 0.001% (much lower than influenza), and 60 - 69 year olds, where the IFR is 0.9%, which is substantially higher than influenza. The rate doesn't get down to 0.04% until you get to 40 - 49 year olds, and as phrased by Atlas, it might give 50 - 69 year olds the false impression that their risk of death is as low as the flu.
BC