07-08-2020, 03:01 PM
There are a lot of theories about the death rate. I have seen the idea that the declining death rate in New York has counteracted an increasing death rate in other parts of the country. However, case numbers have been going up since roughly mid-June (the nadir in the 7-day moving average is just a few days before June 15). Although you would expect a delay between new cases and new deaths, we are now more than three weeks after the rise in cases, so patients in the new hotspots who contracted the disease back in mid-June should start affecting the death rate by now.
My guess is that part of it is that the patients in the new hotspots have tended to be younger and healthier, and so their case fatality rate is a bit lower. Thus, you have fewer older, sicker patients in the northeast with a high CFR dying, while the new cases, which occur in younger, healthier patients in the South and Southwest with a low CFR aren't really pushing the overall deaths up. If this is true, then we will eventually see the number of deaths go up, though the overall CFR will be lower, and the number of deaths will go up more slowly than the number of cases. At least that's what I hope.
BC
My guess is that part of it is that the patients in the new hotspots have tended to be younger and healthier, and so their case fatality rate is a bit lower. Thus, you have fewer older, sicker patients in the northeast with a high CFR dying, while the new cases, which occur in younger, healthier patients in the South and Southwest with a low CFR aren't really pushing the overall deaths up. If this is true, then we will eventually see the number of deaths go up, though the overall CFR will be lower, and the number of deaths will go up more slowly than the number of cases. At least that's what I hope.
BC