[OutsiderFan]

The odds a vaccine will work are extremely low, IMO. First, it has to work over an extended period of time. Given we see strong evidence antibodies don’t last long, this is my number one reason for skepticism. But let’s assume a vaccine works for one year before needing another dose. Then, you need it produced at scale. Then you need people willing to get it. Then you need to pay for it. Look how many people won’t wear a damn mask, and I’m suppose to believe enough will take a vaccine to get herd immunity from something they don’t see as a big deal?

Actually, the odds are that a vaccine will work. The ability to create immunity to this type of virus is more likely than not. The issues are going to be safety, availability and utilization. And yes, we'll probably need booster doses. 

As far as individuals are concerned, you'll likely be able to get reasonable immunity. No vaccine gives 100% coverage but I suspect that we'll also have an antibody test you can take to assure that your vaccine "took." If you are over 40 you probably want to check. When our antibody levels are high, we get pretty good protection from viruses. 

I'm pretty certain most states will make it mandatory for school attendance and many companies will make it mandatory for work. The medical industry will definitely make it mandatory. 

The main stumbling block will be vaccine safety.

There is no AiDS vaccine. There is no vaccine for flu and many other pathogens. I’m curious why so confident a SARS-CoV-2 one will arrive?

Just 50% of Americans say they will take such a vaccine, and a lot of that skepticism lies in the speed at which one is being pursued. It seems many people understand it takes years to develop safe and successful vaccines. Resistance to a vaccine will ebb as a function of time passing with it being safe and working. This is a large part of why I feel waiting for a vaccine instead of seriously changing our approach to getting the outbreak under control, is a bad idea.

[OutsiderFan]

The odds a vaccine will work are extremely low, IMO. First, it has to work over an extended period of time. Given we see strong evidence antibodies don’t last long, this is my number one reason for skepticism. But let’s assume a vaccine works for one year before needing another dose. Then, you need it produced at scale. Then you need people willing to get it. Then you need to pay for it. Look how many people won’t wear a damn mask, and I’m suppose to believe enough will take a vaccine to get herd immunity from something they don’t see as a big deal?

Actually, the odds are that a vaccine will work. The ability to create immunity to this type of virus is more likely than not. The issues are going to be safety, availability and utilization. And yes, we'll probably need booster doses. 

As far as individuals are concerned, you'll likely be able to get reasonable immunity. No vaccine gives 100% coverage but I suspect that we'll also have an antibody test you can take to assure that your vaccine "took." If you are over 40 you probably want to check. When our antibody levels are high, we get pretty good protection from viruses. 

I'm pretty certain most states will make it mandatory for school attendance and many companies will make it mandatory for work. The medical industry will definitely make it mandatory. 

The main stumbling block will be vaccine safety.

There is no AiDS vaccine. There is no vaccine for flu and many other pathogens. I’m curious why so confident a SARS-CoV-2 one will arrive?

Just 50% of Americans say they will take such a vaccine, and a lot of that skepticism lies in the speed at which one is being pursued. It seems many people understand it takes years to develop safe and successful vaccines. Resistance to a vaccine will ebb as a function of time passing with it being safe and working. This is a large part of why I feel waiting for a vaccine instead of seriously changing our approach to getting the outbreak under control, is a bad idea.