(07-11-2020, 11:32 PM)lex24 Wrote:(07-10-2020, 09:57 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I would be very interested to find out what happens to these kids and counselors. How many remain asymptomatic? How many develop symptoms? Do any of them have to be hospitalized?
82 campers with a positive test is not necessarily a concern.
82 campers with a positive test and a substantial number with symptoms might be.
82 campers with a positive test, a substantial number with symptoms and a hospitalization probably is.
82 campers with a positive test, a substantial number with symptoms, and even one death would be catastrophic.
BC
Yes. And if there is a catastrophe we will hear of it. So let’s hope and pray that we hear nothing more. For that will mean there were no bad outcomes.
One other question I’d like to know - how many kids, staff etc were at the camp over the time of the transmissions.
Lex, you seem ignorant of studies showing that kids can transmit the virus between themselves and teachers. This long New York Times article includes multiple examples where kids spread covid among themselves and to adults: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/healt...e=Homepage
Quote:But there have been school-based outbreaks in countries with higher community infection levels and countries that apparently eased safety guidelines too soon. In Israel, the virus infected more than 200 students and staff after schools reopened in early May and lifted limits on class size a few weeks later, according to a report by University of Washington researchers.
Case studies in some countries suggest differences in virus transmission in younger children compared to older children.
In one community in northern France, Crépy-en-Valois, two high school teachers became ill with Covid-19 in early February, before schools closed. Scientists from the Institut Pasteur later tested the school’s students and staff for coronavirus antibodies. They found antibodies in 38 percent of the students, 43 percent of the teachers, and 59 percent of other school staff, said Dr. Arnaud Fontanet, an epidemiologist at the institute who led the study and is a member of a committee advising the French government.
“Clearly you know that the virus circulated in the high school,” Dr. Fontanet said.
The bottom line is that, at best, the evidence on transmission in schools is inconclusive. Some of the widely cited studies, like the Irish one, are crap because of tiny sample sizes (note: actual sample size is the number infected, not the number tested). Studies like the Israeli one suggest that some schools are going to have outbreaks. I don't think any school openings have occurred in places having large outbreaks like Florida. So I guess Florida's teachers get to be guinea pigs. That's just super fair to those teachers.
(07-12-2020, 12:25 AM)akiddoc Wrote: Children's Hospital Oakland has now tested 4020 patients for a variety of reasons. 133 have been positive. No one actually admitted for being sick. No ICU admissions. No deaths.
You're arguing against a straw man. No one is saying that opening schools is a major health threat to kids. It's the teachers, staffers, and parents/other family members of those kids that we are worried about.
