(07-11-2020, 06:19 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I read an article today about Germany’s response to the virus. Several factors struck me:
- Serious government response from the jump, based on having a plan and executing it
- An acceptance of science in part due to fact Chancellor has a Ph.D in quantum chemistry
- All 16 German states followed national government guidelines
- People trust the government
- An aversion to catastrophe based on WWII experience
One of the main tactical NPIs Germany instituted was no gatherings of more than 2 people for several weeks unless part of your household. They didn’t do a SIP. They didn’t have curfews. I believe they required masks and had crowd control at stores. They also did thorough contact tracing and the isolation stuff. This includes a two voluntary government sponsored mobile apps, one for reporting your symptoms and one for tracing purposes. Both voluntary and both anonymous. And they ramped up their testing very fast. Germany reported about 200 new infections today.
Our epidemic is so out of control it’s too late for the U.S. to do any of these things in time to prevent the disaster we are careening toward. I mean do any of y’all know of any apps developed by CDC that are about to be released? The reason Germany got its outbreak under control starts with the fact the country had a plan and followed it from the time the first case was reported. The series of steps it followed and everyone adhered to allowed it to bend down the curve.
Yes, I get we are different culturally than Germany, but even given that, if the U.S. had a national plan and all elected governments took the virus seriously from the beginning, I fully believe our citizens would have largely bought in and followed directions. We’d have our epidemic under control too. Maybe the scale of our COVID-19 Epidemic and the damage it causes becomes for the U.S. what WWII was for Germany in terms of never wanting to experience such a catastrophe again, and changing to make sure we don’t.
OF, while I agree with the idea that Germany did a much better job of responding than the US, some of what you present here is factually incorrect. First, Germany most certainly did have curfews. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_p...in_Germany states that "By 22 March, curfews were imposed in six German states while other states prohibited physical contact with more than one person from outside one's household." Second, the State of Bavaria was the major player in the beginning, not the national government. In point of fact, Bavaria wanted to impose a curfew 10 days before it actually was done. They don't need permission to do so from the national level, but Merkel exerted significant political pressure on them to hold off (Which they did. Same political party). She understands science but she is also a politician and has other priorities. Somewhat shades of Cuomo and de Blasio. So all was not in Gute Bestellung all the time.
It is also important to be aware of the fact that the German epidemic response plan is collaborative in nature. Many of the National functions are advisory, not controlling. Take a look at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK507327/ You are absolutely correct that Germany had a national pandemic plan and they executed it very well. The National, State, and Municipal health authorities worked very well together to do what they had mutually planned to do. It was a "distributed" response, and each part of the response was custom delivered by the local agencies. It is real easy to trust a government that exhibits this level of competence, because they merit that trust. So when one says they "followed the national plan" it is important to remember that plan was written by the various stakeholders to allow them to do things their way. The State and municipal health departments are the contact tracers. This is a very good example of the German inclination to trust the experts and to include all the experts.
For me, the takeaway is that the US had all the right pieces for a good response, but those pieces were just way too weak to do what was needed. We had neglected our Federal, State, and local health departments to the point they had no hope of performing their jobs. We also had a president who couldn't/wouldn't balance the requirements of the experts against his own ego/political needs. That would always have been an issue. However, if the State of California could have responded like the State of Bavaria did things would have been a whole lot better here in California. It didn't have the ability to do so. Ditto whole lots of other jurisdictions. So, if we wanted to emulate Germany, we first needed to have the forces. We didn't, so that was off the table. While we are different culturally in many ways from the Germans, I think Americans (like most everyone else) will trust a government that impresses them as competent. Ours sure failed that test.
New data point: https://www.yahoo.com/news/bavarian-gove...19198.html No way of knowing at this time if it will "stick", but the public views the Bavarian response more favorably than that of any other State or the role played by Berlin. Not totally fair, because it was the technical level response that mattered, but the politicians sometimes get the credit. Very much not who Merkel wants.