07-16-2020, 03:55 PM
(07-16-2020, 02:28 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(07-16-2020, 02:05 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:(07-16-2020, 01:52 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: If all their kids have already got covid, no reason schools can't open.You probably meant this rhetorically, but isn't it, in its perverse way, good news?
*envision guy tapping head meme here*
That was my first thought, but keep in mind that there is selection bias going on here; children are presumably only being tested if they are symptomatic or close contacts of someone infected. If there were a random sample of children in the state, then you might think that in the next two months you could get to herd immunity and safely open the schools. Alas, I suspect the fraction of kids who are not tested who would be positive if they had been, is a lot lower than 30% so we are probably a ways away from herd immunity.
BC
Right, unless you think there's a reason for, during summer break, kids to be more likely to get it than adults (if anything the opposite seems more likely), this would imply that FL has ~6.5M cases (confirmed is ~300k) and that there should be ~30k total deaths (assuming 0.5% IFR), when there are only 4700 currently. Yeah, deaths lag, but not by that much.
This is selection bias, and not what you should expect to see for the overall population.
