[Goose]

SCC has added another page of data.  Among the tables there is Cases by Method of Transmission.  Of the 7795 cases, only 5145 are classified (updated 7/20):
  362  7.0%   Outbreak associated    (LTCFs?)

1050 20.5%  Contact to a Case

    37  0.7%  Travel

3696  71.7%  Unknown/Presumed Community Spread

[We should check a week from now to find out if these numbers go up by a week's worth of cases.  Then see the ratio of Contact to Unknown in the delta.]

As I read it, this data is cumulative from 5/22 to the present. Kind of stupid IMHO, because what happened a month ago isn't very important today. However, the "Contact to a Case" number continues to fall like a stone. Since it is cumulative, that means that the present percentage is much WORSE than the 20.5%

I continue to be surprised at how few "Contact to a Case" there are.  I hear about spread in households,  Wikipedia states that average household household size is just under 3 in SCC, so if the disease hits everyone in the household of someone who got the disease by community spread, I'd expect AT LEAST 67% Contact to a Case.



Remember that "Contact to a Case" is an upper bound on the effectiveness of contact tracing.  I see nothing to suggest that these cases were detected by contact tracing before the individual already knew they had the disease.



So, I'm heartened to think that, with all the pre-symptomatic exposure one would get in a household, maybe it isn't hitting entire households.  Indeed, at 20%, it sounds like it is rarely spreading to even a second person in a household.

Unfortunately there is another possibility. The person who tests positive becomes a "case", but is never contacted, or if they are contacted they do not cooperate and provide no contacts. If that happens, the number of contacts is zero. Therefore, when the family members get sick, they aren't contacts to a case. I personally believe this is what is happening. We know from data provided by Korea (in particular) that contacts do get sick. We are not seeing that. Why? No contacts reported into the system. Easy to trace nothing. All is well. Note that SCC does not provide the actual number of contacts reported per week, so we can't know how well that is going. I think there is a reason for that absence.

[Goose]

SCC has added another page of data.  Among the tables there is Cases by Method of Transmission.  Of the 7795 cases, only 5145 are classified (updated 7/20):
  362  7.0%   Outbreak associated    (LTCFs?)

1050 20.5%  Contact to a Case

    37  0.7%  Travel

3696  71.7%  Unknown/Presumed Community Spread

[We should check a week from now to find out if these numbers go up by a week's worth of cases.  Then see the ratio of Contact to Unknown in the delta.]

As I read it, this data is cumulative from 5/22 to the present. Kind of stupid IMHO, because what happened a month ago isn't very important today. However, the "Contact to a Case" number continues to fall like a stone. Since it is cumulative, that means that the present percentage is much WORSE than the 20.5%

I continue to be surprised at how few "Contact to a Case" there are.  I hear about spread in households,  Wikipedia states that average household household size is just under 3 in SCC, so if the disease hits everyone in the household of someone who got the disease by community spread, I'd expect AT LEAST 67% Contact to a Case.



Remember that "Contact to a Case" is an upper bound on the effectiveness of contact tracing.  I see nothing to suggest that these cases were detected by contact tracing before the individual already knew they had the disease.



So, I'm heartened to think that, with all the pre-symptomatic exposure one would get in a household, maybe it isn't hitting entire households.  Indeed, at 20%, it sounds like it is rarely spreading to even a second person in a household.

Unfortunately there is another possibility. The person who tests positive becomes a "case", but is never contacted, or if they are contacted they do not cooperate and provide no contacts. If that happens, the number of contacts is zero. Therefore, when the family members get sick, they aren't contacts to a case. I personally believe this is what is happening. We know from data provided by Korea (in particular) that contacts do get sick. We are not seeing that. Why? No contacts reported into the system. Easy to trace nothing. All is well. Note that SCC does not provide the actual number of contacts reported per week, so we can't know how well that is going. I think there is a reason for that absence.