[Goose]

Social distancing measures in place right now have driven R(effective) down to less than 1.5, so in those getting to 33% immune is enough to get you herd immunity.

Note that once you get up to 20% immune, that probably is enough to have a measurable effect on how fast the virus propagates.  Think about it, that’s 20% of potential transmission chains snuffed out by immunity.

BC

It also shows that if our contact tracing effort was finding even 1/3 of the people who had been exposed and quarantining them the disease level would be steady-state or better. This really shows how badly we have failed at this. I really do not understand why the public is so passive in accepting that our plan to flatten the curve and then drive it down has totally failed.

It has failed in Northern California because our tracking and tracing has failed. SCCs numbers make that clear. Only about 20% of the cases are contacts of other cases, and it is not specified how many of those were even contacted. We are now apparently trying to figure out a way to survive community spread with an R(effective) > 1. We may manage to do it but the damage to our society is already great and grows daily. We are relying on keeping up social distancing and masks at the current levels of effectiveness, increasing herd immunity, better treatments for acute cases, and/or a vaccine to save us before we finally, inexorably, overload our hospitals. Yet the public seems not to care at all. Neither does CNN or anybody else in the news media. It should be a local and national scandal but we hear dead silence.

[Goose]

Social distancing measures in place right now have driven R(effective) down to less than 1.5, so in those getting to 33% immune is enough to get you herd immunity.

Note that once you get up to 20% immune, that probably is enough to have a measurable effect on how fast the virus propagates.  Think about it, that’s 20% of potential transmission chains snuffed out by immunity.

BC

It also shows that if our contact tracing effort was finding even 1/3 of the people who had been exposed and quarantining them the disease level would be steady-state or better. This really shows how badly we have failed at this. I really do not understand why the public is so passive in accepting that our plan to flatten the curve and then drive it down has totally failed.

It has failed in Northern California because our tracking and tracing has failed. SCCs numbers make that clear. Only about 20% of the cases are contacts of other cases, and it is not specified how many of those were even contacted. We are now apparently trying to figure out a way to survive community spread with an R(effective) > 1. We may manage to do it but the damage to our society is already great and grows daily. We are relying on keeping up social distancing and masks at the current levels of effectiveness, increasing herd immunity, better treatments for acute cases, and/or a vaccine to save us before we finally, inexorably, overload our hospitals. Yet the public seems not to care at all. Neither does CNN or anybody else in the news media. It should be a local and national scandal but we hear dead silence.