07-29-2020, 07:36 AM
BEA will release the "advance estimate" of the second quarter GDP tomorrow at 5:30 am PDT. The Atlanta Fed has a realtime GDP estimator (and of course there are estimates from a bunch of other sources):
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Its latest estimate is -32.1% (this is an annualized rate that implies a quarter on quarter decline of 7.2%). The root mean squared error compared to the advance estimate on the day before the release is 1.15%, though it is worth noting that the estimate was off by about 3.8% (absolute difference) for the first quarter GDP, as COVID-19 throws everything into disarray. I would imagine a greater discrepancy between the advance estimate and the final number as well, though first quarter GDP was only revised by 0.2% between the advanced estimate and the second estimate (-4.8% to 5%).
BC
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Its latest estimate is -32.1% (this is an annualized rate that implies a quarter on quarter decline of 7.2%). The root mean squared error compared to the advance estimate on the day before the release is 1.15%, though it is worth noting that the estimate was off by about 3.8% (absolute difference) for the first quarter GDP, as COVID-19 throws everything into disarray. I would imagine a greater discrepancy between the advance estimate and the final number as well, though first quarter GDP was only revised by 0.2% between the advanced estimate and the second estimate (-4.8% to 5%).
BC