07-30-2020, 09:43 AM
- US Q2 GDP advanced estimate dropped 32.9% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate
- Previous historically large drops are dwarfed by this result
- Q4 2008 dropped 8.4%
- Q1 1958 dropped 10.0%
- Q4 2008 dropped 8.4%
- Average estimates from the cnbc ink below for the quarter were a drop of 34.7% [the Atlanta Fed est was down 32.1%]
- The biggest drivers for the drop were
- Personal consumption expenditures which dropped 36.6%, within this category
- goods were down 11.3% (mostly non-durable goods)
- services were down 43.5% (large drops in health care, recreation, transportation, and food services and accommodations)
- goods were down 11.3% (mostly non-durable goods)
- Gross private fixed investment declined overall but
- information processing equipment was up slightly both Y/Y and Q/Q [it is unclear what exactly is included in this category]
- software was up Y/Y and down slightly Q/Q
- R&D was up slightly Y/Y and down slightly Q/Q
- information processing equipment was up slightly both Y/Y and Q/Q [it is unclear what exactly is included in this category]
- Some other drops in Non-farm inventories and Exports
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/us-gdp-q...ading.html
- The drop of 32.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate is equivalent to
- Q/Q US Q2 GDP dropped 9.5%
- Y/Y US Q2 GDP dropped 9.5%
- Q/Q US Q2 GDP dropped 9.5%
The release from the Bureau of Economic analysis is here
the market seems to not be bothered as it is currently (9:40am PT) down ~1%
Eric
"the older we get the better we were"