I think it's still a reasonable plan for colleges to proceed for the time with the possibility that there will be some college football this fall.
While yes, I agree, as the situation is now currently, and with the current trends, there is no way CFB can be played this fall. But that assumes a static situation and static trends.
For example, let's say in SCC the # hospitalized is increasing 10% per week. We can project out to late September and say there is no way a game is being played in 9 weeks because by then 2.35x times as many people will be hospitalized. In June many #s tripled, so if we take that trend, the # hospitalized will increase 9x by the first college game, and of course there is no way anyone should be playing football in that kind of situation.
But there are some possibilities.
First, I expect further tightening in California, in fact, I am surprised nothing has been announced yet. I read in St Louis they've already instituted a curfew for last call for liquor to be at 9:30pm and there were no problems. Maybe people in Missouri just aren't independent or free-thinking at all and are completely compliant (just kidding!). But I could see a stricter curfew coming to California in a week or two. In fact, I'm surprised they haven't made that move already.
In the extreme, I could see something approaching more of a strict shelter-in-place in some places like California. Not as severe as in March, but I could see them shutting down the indoor malls and shops, and possibly shutting down construction in some counties. That, combined with a curfew and current capabilities and knowledge, could be enough to get the cases much lower.
And also, there was that recent news about research to develop a test where people could use saliva on a test strip and get results at home. I could see a technology like that could make it possible for schools and universities to open and stay open at half capacity. These research efforts are just possibilities, but it's an example of tech that could come along before widespread vaccination. I don't see that making it possible to have a full football schedule with fans in stadiums, but something might be enough to have some games without fans sometime this fall.
Even if it is still less than 50% likely CFB will be played this fall, I think it's still worth preparing for the possibility. And I like that Stanford has informed its student athletes that they can opt out without penalty -- no loss in scholarship, etc. So if anyone feels uncomfortable, they should have the choice to opt out. Stanford said they've been working with researchers and with the hospital to develop a world-class blueprint to enable half of the students to come to campus safely this fall. For now, I'm hopeful that they have a good plan.
While yes, I agree, as the situation is now currently, and with the current trends, there is no way CFB can be played this fall. But that assumes a static situation and static trends.
For example, let's say in SCC the # hospitalized is increasing 10% per week. We can project out to late September and say there is no way a game is being played in 9 weeks because by then 2.35x times as many people will be hospitalized. In June many #s tripled, so if we take that trend, the # hospitalized will increase 9x by the first college game, and of course there is no way anyone should be playing football in that kind of situation.
But there are some possibilities.
First, I expect further tightening in California, in fact, I am surprised nothing has been announced yet. I read in St Louis they've already instituted a curfew for last call for liquor to be at 9:30pm and there were no problems. Maybe people in Missouri just aren't independent or free-thinking at all and are completely compliant (just kidding!). But I could see a stricter curfew coming to California in a week or two. In fact, I'm surprised they haven't made that move already.
In the extreme, I could see something approaching more of a strict shelter-in-place in some places like California. Not as severe as in March, but I could see them shutting down the indoor malls and shops, and possibly shutting down construction in some counties. That, combined with a curfew and current capabilities and knowledge, could be enough to get the cases much lower.
And also, there was that recent news about research to develop a test where people could use saliva on a test strip and get results at home. I could see a technology like that could make it possible for schools and universities to open and stay open at half capacity. These research efforts are just possibilities, but it's an example of tech that could come along before widespread vaccination. I don't see that making it possible to have a full football schedule with fans in stadiums, but something might be enough to have some games without fans sometime this fall.
Even if it is still less than 50% likely CFB will be played this fall, I think it's still worth preparing for the possibility. And I like that Stanford has informed its student athletes that they can opt out without penalty -- no loss in scholarship, etc. So if anyone feels uncomfortable, they should have the choice to opt out. Stanford said they've been working with researchers and with the hospital to develop a world-class blueprint to enable half of the students to come to campus safely this fall. For now, I'm hopeful that they have a good plan.