[M T]

Most transmission is indoors. 
Masks help. A lot. 
There are certainly going to be some cases from outdoor transmission, but the physics of particle flow make it much less likely. I'll bet most of the "backyard barbecue" transmission involved going indoors while attending or very close contact without hand washing or masks. I don't think outdoor activities need to be banned IF people wear masks and they keep a few feet of distance. Hard to wear a mask while eating, though.

On what basis do you make those statements?  I agree they represent what we "know" about the disease and are being told by the "experts".  But where is the data?  I think it is clear that contact tracing in the US is mute on the subject.  Certainly we don't have enough information for the vast majority of cases to rule in or out particular transmission paths.   If we don't know the transmission for 99.99% of the cases, I find it hard to say how most transmission happens.

On top of that, there is so much difficulty in ruling in/out a particular path even when you know that Adam gave it to Bob.  I see the CDC trying to say that even if the infectee wasn't within droplet distance of the infector in the office, then maybe they got it from fomites rather than aerosols.  It seems like they work hard at painting everything to be inside the lines they've already drawn.

I am very frustrated that we aren't seeing more effort spent at trying to track down the activities that are associated with spread.  Do the people getting it work out of the house (more than those not getting it)?  Work indoors or outdoors primarily?  Use public transportation?  Go to grocery stores?  Go to barbers or beauty saloons or bars or churches or protests or tiddly-wink tournaments or ....?  (I'm not trying to claim any of these are major contributors.  I am trying to say the kinds of questions that should be asked AND ANSWERED.)

Indeed, to me, one of the possible reasons our contact tracing seems to be failing (which I have to assume since no one seems to be touting its success) is that maybe we don't really have the right model of transmission.  (Other reasons include too much delay in the contact tracing cycle.)

[M T]

Most transmission is indoors. 
Masks help. A lot. 
There are certainly going to be some cases from outdoor transmission, but the physics of particle flow make it much less likely. I'll bet most of the "backyard barbecue" transmission involved going indoors while attending or very close contact without hand washing or masks. I don't think outdoor activities need to be banned IF people wear masks and they keep a few feet of distance. Hard to wear a mask while eating, though.

On what basis do you make those statements?  I agree they represent what we "know" about the disease and are being told by the "experts".  But where is the data?  I think it is clear that contact tracing in the US is mute on the subject.  Certainly we don't have enough information for the vast majority of cases to rule in or out particular transmission paths.   If we don't know the transmission for 99.99% of the cases, I find it hard to say how most transmission happens.

On top of that, there is so much difficulty in ruling in/out a particular path even when you know that Adam gave it to Bob.  I see the CDC trying to say that even if the infectee wasn't within droplet distance of the infector in the office, then maybe they got it from fomites rather than aerosols.  It seems like they work hard at painting everything to be inside the lines they've already drawn.

I am very frustrated that we aren't seeing more effort spent at trying to track down the activities that are associated with spread.  Do the people getting it work out of the house (more than those not getting it)?  Work indoors or outdoors primarily?  Use public transportation?  Go to grocery stores?  Go to barbers or beauty saloons or bars or churches or protests or tiddly-wink tournaments or ....?  (I'm not trying to claim any of these are major contributors.  I am trying to say the kinds of questions that should be asked AND ANSWERED.)

Indeed, to me, one of the possible reasons our contact tracing seems to be failing (which I have to assume since no one seems to be touting its success) is that maybe we don't really have the right model of transmission.  (Other reasons include too much delay in the contact tracing cycle.)