[OutsiderFan]

As I have seen the reported new case numbers across the country decline to ~50k a day from the previous week's 60k-70k range, I am skeptical. I see no reason cases should have declined that much from week-to-week, unless the population started taking the virus seriously a week before the numbers went into the 70ks, because it take two weeks for behavior changes to show in the data.

I'm not aware of more mask orders or shutdowns that happened a week before the big July spike, and the IHME social distancing data doesn't suggest people stopped traveling much to stop slow spread. Could it be people voluntarily pulled back from risky behavior when they saw the numbers rising so much?  

It feels like we are operating blind with only our sense of smell and touch to guide us. We smell smoke but have no idea where the fire is.

[OutsiderFan]

As I have seen the reported new case numbers across the country decline to ~50k a day from the previous week's 60k-70k range, I am skeptical. I see no reason cases should have declined that much from week-to-week, unless the population started taking the virus seriously a week before the numbers went into the 70ks, because it take two weeks for behavior changes to show in the data.

I'm not aware of more mask orders or shutdowns that happened a week before the big July spike, and the IHME social distancing data doesn't suggest people stopped traveling much to stop slow spread. Could it be people voluntarily pulled back from risky behavior when they saw the numbers rising so much?  

It feels like we are operating blind with only our sense of smell and touch to guide us. We smell smoke but have no idea where the fire is.