(08-06-2020, 08:32 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote:(08-05-2020, 07:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: OK, I’ll buy some impact to push down spread could be a result of national retailers requiring masks. However, given the rate of transmission, that doesn’t explain a 20k daily reduction.I don't see why any of this should be a surprise, as the public increasingly comes to understand and accept the norms of social distancing.
So we have SCC’s data fiasco that it says is under reporting cases based on faulty data collection and aggregation methods. Who knows how many counties and states are similarly plagued.
But here’s some evidence of deliberate attempts to ignore the amount of spread:
https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/...423753.php
The AP also reported overall testing capacity has dropped 3.5% over the last two weeks.
But you can’t hide the deaths, which continue to climb.
I suggestd long ago that the discipline of major retailers would be a major factor, and so it may be proving. Not only does such practice reduce places of contagion, but it also sets a powerful example for other modes of socialization.
As to rising deaths, I only follow Santa Clara County. It has been interesting over the past two months that death rates have NOT spiked, even though case counts rose significantly. Hospitalizations rose dramatically at the start, then leveled off at about 180. But they never rose in proportion to the case census.
I appreciate MT's posts (and his avid following of county and state data). But I also find it hard to believe that hospitalization numbers would suffer from whatever glitch is apparently infecting (pun intended) the count on number of tests, positive test rate, etc. Those strike me as completely different sets of numbers (and magnitudes of same) that would be reported differently. Hospitals know how many patients are in beds (acute and ICU), what % of those in those beds are Covid patients, and number of excess beds available. I find it hard to believe that any mix up in testing data would cripple hospitalization numbers.
As to GR's point on SCC hospitalization spiking, it was separately reported that patients from Imperial County and San Quentin prison were sent to hospitals in the Bay Area. The number was never disclosed (nor location of where patients ended up), which is mind-boggling. But the point is that the "spike" in SCC hospitalization could be attributable to these "outside county" numbers. It's astounding to me that this data is not being shared.
