[BostonCard]

Why does he "trust" his current estimates? Possibly does he have another source of what he believes are accurate case counts? Today, the estimate is 0.91. So in 10 days we should have only 0.4 times as many cases as we do today. When that happens I will believe the number. Until then, we have a problem.

Your math is wrong.  R refers to the reproductive number over the entire infectious cycle of a pathogen not a daily number.  So in your equation, you need to divide the number of days by the average time between infections (about 10 days for COVID-19), so to get 40% as many cases as today, you need about 100 days (0.91^100/10).

BC

[BostonCard]

Why does he "trust" his current estimates? Possibly does he have another source of what he believes are accurate case counts? Today, the estimate is 0.91. So in 10 days we should have only 0.4 times as many cases as we do today. When that happens I will believe the number. Until then, we have a problem.

Your math is wrong.  R refers to the reproductive number over the entire infectious cycle of a pathogen not a daily number.  So in your equation, you need to divide the number of days by the average time between infections (about 10 days for COVID-19), so to get 40% as many cases as today, you need about 100 days (0.91^100/10).

BC