08-19-2020, 05:07 PM
Teejers,
1. What does that mean? What does that entail? Shut down of everything - excepting food stores - for 2-3 months? Good luck with that one. But maybe Joe Biden can convince us all that's what we need to do . . .
Dr. Birx says its what we should have done. It also worked for Italy, China, and others..
2. Okay, fine. We should be doing the "smart stuff" now.
We can work on the education now, but with cases all over the place people just throw up their hands and say it is hopeless. So we need the cases near zero so that the population is more motivated to keep it that way. "Crush the curve" is more or less what the EU nation states did and those same nation-state leaders often note the USA is failing because we keep opening up on the downward slope rather than when new cases are much closer to zero per day... when back down the case mountain you have crushed the curve. A number of national and global leaders talk about crushing the curve daily. So I would recommend our good friends at Google should you really want to know more about the definition and origin of the concept beyond the idea of driving new cases to near zero before opening up activities.
3. Does this assume, then, that after the curve is "crushed" (again, definition?) that the US localities will be able to test and trace every new positive test? That strikes me as awfully ambitious, given the track record we've seen to date on track and trace.
Yes, it strikes you as awfully ambitious because we have too many new cases. That's why #1 and #2 are required.
4. I'm all for that.
But fundamentally, I always return to this: what is the ultimate goal you're trying to accomplish vis a vis the virus? Is it to wipe it out from US soil? That is just not going to happen . . . is it? The prevalence is too great, and the virus "got away from us" too early.
You got it. Prevalence is too great. The vaccine path alone will be fools gold because too many Americans are going to refuse to take a new vaccine and efficacy of the vaccine may not match our dreams. So given the questions on the vaccine path it might be best to actually utilize the proven path. I would say use it for a second time, but the USA has not had a national shutdown yet.
Italy had a pretty wicked outbreak and their full scale lockdown did wonders. So a lockdown can be done, but needs a serious commitment.
Bama packing fans into a football stadium while hospital ICUs are near capacity is not part of that serious commitment.
In the end, we won't do the steps necessary for crush the curve. As you noted.
That is why if someone really wants a safe K-12 in 2020-2021 it might be time to become an expat for a few years in a country hat has citizens actually committed to battling COVID19.
The alternatives are not great, but hoping for a miracle is not a good plan.
1. What does that mean? What does that entail? Shut down of everything - excepting food stores - for 2-3 months? Good luck with that one. But maybe Joe Biden can convince us all that's what we need to do . . .
Dr. Birx says its what we should have done. It also worked for Italy, China, and others..
2. Okay, fine. We should be doing the "smart stuff" now.
We can work on the education now, but with cases all over the place people just throw up their hands and say it is hopeless. So we need the cases near zero so that the population is more motivated to keep it that way. "Crush the curve" is more or less what the EU nation states did and those same nation-state leaders often note the USA is failing because we keep opening up on the downward slope rather than when new cases are much closer to zero per day... when back down the case mountain you have crushed the curve. A number of national and global leaders talk about crushing the curve daily. So I would recommend our good friends at Google should you really want to know more about the definition and origin of the concept beyond the idea of driving new cases to near zero before opening up activities.
3. Does this assume, then, that after the curve is "crushed" (again, definition?) that the US localities will be able to test and trace every new positive test? That strikes me as awfully ambitious, given the track record we've seen to date on track and trace.
Yes, it strikes you as awfully ambitious because we have too many new cases. That's why #1 and #2 are required.
4. I'm all for that.
But fundamentally, I always return to this: what is the ultimate goal you're trying to accomplish vis a vis the virus? Is it to wipe it out from US soil? That is just not going to happen . . . is it? The prevalence is too great, and the virus "got away from us" too early.
You got it. Prevalence is too great. The vaccine path alone will be fools gold because too many Americans are going to refuse to take a new vaccine and efficacy of the vaccine may not match our dreams. So given the questions on the vaccine path it might be best to actually utilize the proven path. I would say use it for a second time, but the USA has not had a national shutdown yet.
Italy had a pretty wicked outbreak and their full scale lockdown did wonders. So a lockdown can be done, but needs a serious commitment.
Bama packing fans into a football stadium while hospital ICUs are near capacity is not part of that serious commitment.
In the end, we won't do the steps necessary for crush the curve. As you noted.
That is why if someone really wants a safe K-12 in 2020-2021 it might be time to become an expat for a few years in a country hat has citizens actually committed to battling COVID19.
The alternatives are not great, but hoping for a miracle is not a good plan.