[BostonCard]

Last thing: sounds like you attribute all of Italy's "success" in controlling the virus to lockdown and not herd immunity.  I have doubts about that.  I think areas that take it on the chin, virus-wise generally have greater success later due in some part to herd immunity.  How much is attributable to one versus the other is uncertain.

Spain was hit as bad (or worse than Italy).  If it had herd immunity, you wouldn't be seeing this second spike; the seven day moving average of new cases is about 4000.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/spain/

Belgium was the hardest hit (in terms of per capita deaths) big-ish country in the world (I think only San Marino was higher).  Even it is facing a second wavelet (thankfully nowhere near as bad as the first).  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...y/belgium/

That shouldn't be happening if they approached herd immunity.  And that's because if you assume a 0.5% infection fatality rate, and 0.08% of patients have died, then as a crude approximation only about 16% of the population has been infected, and you probably need about 3 times that to reach herd immunity.

Even in Italy, while it is possible that the Lombardi region has local herd immunity, Southern Italy was hit much less hard and is still vulnerable.  I think it would be naive to think that a second wave can't happen, even though, thankfully, it doesn't look like we are seeing much of one yet.

BC

[BostonCard]

Last thing: sounds like you attribute all of Italy's "success" in controlling the virus to lockdown and not herd immunity.  I have doubts about that.  I think areas that take it on the chin, virus-wise generally have greater success later due in some part to herd immunity.  How much is attributable to one versus the other is uncertain.

Spain was hit as bad (or worse than Italy).  If it had herd immunity, you wouldn't be seeing this second spike; the seven day moving average of new cases is about 4000.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/spain/

Belgium was the hardest hit (in terms of per capita deaths) big-ish country in the world (I think only San Marino was higher).  Even it is facing a second wavelet (thankfully nowhere near as bad as the first).  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...y/belgium/

That shouldn't be happening if they approached herd immunity.  And that's because if you assume a 0.5% infection fatality rate, and 0.08% of patients have died, then as a crude approximation only about 16% of the population has been infected, and you probably need about 3 times that to reach herd immunity.

Even in Italy, while it is possible that the Lombardi region has local herd immunity, Southern Italy was hit much less hard and is still vulnerable.  I think it would be naive to think that a second wave can't happen, even though, thankfully, it doesn't look like we are seeing much of one yet.

BC