08-25-2020, 09:15 AM
Cases are already coming down. The 7-day average of new cases peaked a month ago at 68,000/day; it is now down down to 43,000/day. Hospitalizations and deaths are behind but also starting to decline. While some states have backed off their reopening plans, and some have re-shut down some things likes bars and restaurants, no one has gone back to a lockdown, and there doesn't appear to be evidence that they should.
I think the pandemic can be successfully managed by:
1) Universal face coverings
2) Continue to close high risk activities (large gatherings, indoor activities without facemasks, etc.)
3) Shielding vulnerable populations
4) Testing and tracing as aggressively as can be done
Yes, a shutdown might further suppress the virus so that test and trace is easier and so that levels might be low enough to reopen some higher risk activities, but given the current trajectory, it is hard to argue on the necessity of another shutdown barring a third wave.
BC
I think the pandemic can be successfully managed by:
1) Universal face coverings
2) Continue to close high risk activities (large gatherings, indoor activities without facemasks, etc.)
3) Shielding vulnerable populations
4) Testing and tracing as aggressively as can be done
Yes, a shutdown might further suppress the virus so that test and trace is easier and so that levels might be low enough to reopen some higher risk activities, but given the current trajectory, it is hard to argue on the necessity of another shutdown barring a third wave.
BC