[Goose]

6) We now know that risk of reinfection is non-zero.  I still think it is the exception, not the rule, but if the natural immunity is not long-lasting, the "herd immunity" strategy could be a fool's errand.


BC

It would be prudent to have a plan for the case that natural immunity is not long lasting and/or the vaccine(s) don't work well. FWIW I would base the decision on how hard to fight for keeping cases down (by shutdown and regulations) on having a treatment for COVID-19 that works "pretty well". If monoclonal antibodies work well (alone or in combination) we can expect to keep deaths under control after we reopen. Since the timeline there is about the same as vaccines (as I understand it ATM), then keeping shutdown for two more months is the way to  go IMHO. Vaccines and herd immunity take a while to evaluate. We may not know what we have for a year. If monoclonals work, we will know it with higher confidence sooner. If they don't work, we have no other near-term options for a largely effective treatment that I am aware of. Staying shutdown for another year is impossible, but without a treatment or immunity, fully opening up will result in lots of death. In between doesn't seem to be viable for any significant period of time either, because it seems to have economic effects that are almost as bad as a full shutdown.

[Goose]

6) We now know that risk of reinfection is non-zero.  I still think it is the exception, not the rule, but if the natural immunity is not long-lasting, the "herd immunity" strategy could be a fool's errand.


BC

It would be prudent to have a plan for the case that natural immunity is not long lasting and/or the vaccine(s) don't work well. FWIW I would base the decision on how hard to fight for keeping cases down (by shutdown and regulations) on having a treatment for COVID-19 that works "pretty well". If monoclonal antibodies work well (alone or in combination) we can expect to keep deaths under control after we reopen. Since the timeline there is about the same as vaccines (as I understand it ATM), then keeping shutdown for two more months is the way to  go IMHO. Vaccines and herd immunity take a while to evaluate. We may not know what we have for a year. If monoclonals work, we will know it with higher confidence sooner. If they don't work, we have no other near-term options for a largely effective treatment that I am aware of. Staying shutdown for another year is impossible, but without a treatment or immunity, fully opening up will result in lots of death. In between doesn't seem to be viable for any significant period of time either, because it seems to have economic effects that are almost as bad as a full shutdown.