[BostonCard]

I mean, you can probably attribute some of the increase in the stock market during Trump's term to the tax cuts he passed, but on the other hand, Obama and Trump are about as politically different as you can reasonably expect, and yet, COVID blip aside, the stock market has performed pretty similarly for both of them.

Just a minor nit, but Pres. Obama's market growth happened at the beginning, middle and what would have been presumed to be the end of the longest bull market in history. Trump's growth happened when expansions historically have faded.  

Also (speaking of the Fed).  Obama's growth occurred when Fed's rate was 0.25%, and remained so for Pres. Obama's entire eight year term.  Rates started increasing a bit in Obama's eigth year (by a sliver) then skyrocketed and continued to accelerate during Trump's first three years.  They only reduced when COVID appeared.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-fun...ical-chart

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-fun...ical-chart

Not a nit; your point reinforces mine that timing is everything in the market, even if you are President.  I shouldn't have been so flippant in saying that Presidents don't affect the market; as mentioned, Trump's tax cuts probably helped in the short term.  However, timing and luck probably have a lot more to do with it than policy.  The business cycle will do what the business cycle does, and to my knowledge the President has a marginal impact on the business cycle.  Obama was lucky; had his Presidency started a year earlier, stock market performance under his term would look a lot worse.  George W Bush was unlucky; things would have looked better if he didn't inherit a market that was near its short term peak and about to crash.

BC

[BostonCard]

I mean, you can probably attribute some of the increase in the stock market during Trump's term to the tax cuts he passed, but on the other hand, Obama and Trump are about as politically different as you can reasonably expect, and yet, COVID blip aside, the stock market has performed pretty similarly for both of them.

Just a minor nit, but Pres. Obama's market growth happened at the beginning, middle and what would have been presumed to be the end of the longest bull market in history. Trump's growth happened when expansions historically have faded.  

Also (speaking of the Fed).  Obama's growth occurred when Fed's rate was 0.25%, and remained so for Pres. Obama's entire eight year term.  Rates started increasing a bit in Obama's eigth year (by a sliver) then skyrocketed and continued to accelerate during Trump's first three years.  They only reduced when COVID appeared.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-fun...ical-chart

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-fun...ical-chart

Not a nit; your point reinforces mine that timing is everything in the market, even if you are President.  I shouldn't have been so flippant in saying that Presidents don't affect the market; as mentioned, Trump's tax cuts probably helped in the short term.  However, timing and luck probably have a lot more to do with it than policy.  The business cycle will do what the business cycle does, and to my knowledge the President has a marginal impact on the business cycle.  Obama was lucky; had his Presidency started a year earlier, stock market performance under his term would look a lot worse.  George W Bush was unlucky; things would have looked better if he didn't inherit a market that was near its short term peak and about to crash.

BC