[Farm93]

Is there any simulation that can or has been done that would show where we would be without lockdowns, masks, and other things that reduce spread to prevent medical systems from collapse?

It’s easy to see numbers that seem low and claim there is no reason to take precautions because they are low, but the fact is the reason they are low is because the precautions are taken.

Most of the models that the different groups use include some ability to estimate past and future deaths, though I don't think many of them are easily accessible for free to the general public.

The Worldometers site does have projection charts.   On those charts you can see projections with and without easing and/or with or without universal masks.   

Those two variables alone give some insights into just how bad our Fall 2020 might become for the USA.

However, in all cases the models are trying to estimate a past that did not happen or a future that might not happen.   So for anyone not inclined to believe stats, models & forecasts it would be hard to use any of the models as persuasive evidence.

For me the more compelling evidence continues to be the empirical evidence
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, New Zealand & Australia
vs
Mexico, Brazil, Russia

Back to the models
Another challenge is that stats and models are often easy to massage to fit your narrative.  
For example, President Trump generally rejected the forecasts, especially in ~May when they projected deaths in that 100K-240K range.
However President Trump also embraced those same models to claim he saved millions of lives because the models noted if we made no modifications then millions might have died.

[Farm93]

Is there any simulation that can or has been done that would show where we would be without lockdowns, masks, and other things that reduce spread to prevent medical systems from collapse?

It’s easy to see numbers that seem low and claim there is no reason to take precautions because they are low, but the fact is the reason they are low is because the precautions are taken.

Most of the models that the different groups use include some ability to estimate past and future deaths, though I don't think many of them are easily accessible for free to the general public.

The Worldometers site does have projection charts.   On those charts you can see projections with and without easing and/or with or without universal masks.   

Those two variables alone give some insights into just how bad our Fall 2020 might become for the USA.

However, in all cases the models are trying to estimate a past that did not happen or a future that might not happen.   So for anyone not inclined to believe stats, models & forecasts it would be hard to use any of the models as persuasive evidence.

For me the more compelling evidence continues to be the empirical evidence
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, New Zealand & Australia
vs
Mexico, Brazil, Russia

Back to the models
Another challenge is that stats and models are often easy to massage to fit your narrative.  
For example, President Trump generally rejected the forecasts, especially in ~May when they projected deaths in that 100K-240K range.
However President Trump also embraced those same models to claim he saved millions of lives because the models noted if we made no modifications then millions might have died.