[Farm93]

Per the CDC, the US will pass 200,000 dead from COVID-19 probably this weekend orMonday. (195K at Sep 16 2020 12:16PM; 961 in last day).

The daily death numbers can be seen at
  https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

I find it interesting and bothersome that the fall-off from the peak in mid-August is much slower than the fall-off from the peak in mid-April.
(Remember, deaths are 3 weeks or a month delayed from cases.)
The earlier, faster drop is almost certainly due to the shelter-in-place reaction to that steep rise in March to mid-April.
The rise throughout July was not as steep, but is steeper than the fall from the resulting peak.

The current daily rate of 844 deaths (7 day average as of 9/15) corresponds to a yearly total of 308K.  That is approximately 11 percent of the (previous) death rate for the country (2017 yearly deaths 2.8M; live births 3.8M).   If things don't change for the better or worse, about 1 of every 10 deaths will be COVID related (308K / (2.8M + 308K)).  
In 2017, the broad category "Diseases of the heart" accounted for 23% of deaths, while "malignant neoplasms" accounted for 22%, while flu & pneumonia accounted for 55.6K deaths.

Putting 200K and 844 deaths/day in perspective: 
   200K is nearly twice the total number of fatalities in all US military events after WWII.
   If the US were SIMULTANEOUSLY fighting the US Civil War, WWI, and WWII, the death count would be 946 per day.

This is assuming there are no lingering health effects from a first (or nth) round of COVID-19 that add to death figures in the future.  It's only been 7 months since the first known death in the US.

------

Oh yea, let's open things up.  We want our MTV and football and dining at restaurants and more!   We can print our money with a new motto "In vaccine, we trust".

Let's be brutally frank here.  If the death profile of the 200,000 folks who perished were 20-50 year old working and tax-paying mothers and fathers (as opposed to grandmothers/grandfathers . . . or great grandmothers/grandfathers), then the reaction would be different.  It is not - by and large those dying are old and infirm (in some manner).  Thus, we have what we have.

This goes all the way back to Mick's original question way back when about the wisdom of shut down, given the profile of those most adversely affected.  It's harsh.  But it's "truth" to use a term bandied about in these parts.

Apparently depends on which 20-50 year-old moms we are talking about.
If we are talking about moms living under Blue State Governors and/or Blue City Mayors then I suspect all would be acceptable to POTUS.  Since POTUS often removes non-GOP state sub-groups to imply he did a good job.    

Ultimately as long as the USA death toll is under the 2 million (an initial projection if the USA did nothing), then POTUS45 will certainly declare he has done a good job.   And I should say that is the benchmark as long as we are under that specific estimate.   The benchmark has been different numbers right until we blew past those numbers.   <60K, <100K and now <240K have all been used as the marker of success in the last 5 months. 

We are still using 240K for now, but with a number of superspreader (MAGA Rallies, ACC football tailgates, college and HS football games, open schools without mandatory masks, etc.) events in September, we are going to blast through 240K in a few weeks.

The real benchmark is the Dow Jones Index or perhaps the S&P500.   As long as the stock market can be supported by easy monetary and fiscal policies then all is fine. 

USA citizen deaths? IIWII

[Farm93]

Per the CDC, the US will pass 200,000 dead from COVID-19 probably this weekend orMonday. (195K at Sep 16 2020 12:16PM; 961 in last day).

The daily death numbers can be seen at
  https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

I find it interesting and bothersome that the fall-off from the peak in mid-August is much slower than the fall-off from the peak in mid-April.
(Remember, deaths are 3 weeks or a month delayed from cases.)
The earlier, faster drop is almost certainly due to the shelter-in-place reaction to that steep rise in March to mid-April.
The rise throughout July was not as steep, but is steeper than the fall from the resulting peak.

The current daily rate of 844 deaths (7 day average as of 9/15) corresponds to a yearly total of 308K.  That is approximately 11 percent of the (previous) death rate for the country (2017 yearly deaths 2.8M; live births 3.8M).   If things don't change for the better or worse, about 1 of every 10 deaths will be COVID related (308K / (2.8M + 308K)).  
In 2017, the broad category "Diseases of the heart" accounted for 23% of deaths, while "malignant neoplasms" accounted for 22%, while flu & pneumonia accounted for 55.6K deaths.

Putting 200K and 844 deaths/day in perspective: 
   200K is nearly twice the total number of fatalities in all US military events after WWII.
   If the US were SIMULTANEOUSLY fighting the US Civil War, WWI, and WWII, the death count would be 946 per day.

This is assuming there are no lingering health effects from a first (or nth) round of COVID-19 that add to death figures in the future.  It's only been 7 months since the first known death in the US.

------

Oh yea, let's open things up.  We want our MTV and football and dining at restaurants and more!   We can print our money with a new motto "In vaccine, we trust".

Let's be brutally frank here.  If the death profile of the 200,000 folks who perished were 20-50 year old working and tax-paying mothers and fathers (as opposed to grandmothers/grandfathers . . . or great grandmothers/grandfathers), then the reaction would be different.  It is not - by and large those dying are old and infirm (in some manner).  Thus, we have what we have.

This goes all the way back to Mick's original question way back when about the wisdom of shut down, given the profile of those most adversely affected.  It's harsh.  But it's "truth" to use a term bandied about in these parts.

Apparently depends on which 20-50 year-old moms we are talking about.
If we are talking about moms living under Blue State Governors and/or Blue City Mayors then I suspect all would be acceptable to POTUS.  Since POTUS often removes non-GOP state sub-groups to imply he did a good job.    

Ultimately as long as the USA death toll is under the 2 million (an initial projection if the USA did nothing), then POTUS45 will certainly declare he has done a good job.   And I should say that is the benchmark as long as we are under that specific estimate.   The benchmark has been different numbers right until we blew past those numbers.   <60K, <100K and now <240K have all been used as the marker of success in the last 5 months. 

We are still using 240K for now, but with a number of superspreader (MAGA Rallies, ACC football tailgates, college and HS football games, open schools without mandatory masks, etc.) events in September, we are going to blast through 240K in a few weeks.

The real benchmark is the Dow Jones Index or perhaps the S&P500.   As long as the stock market can be supported by easy monetary and fiscal policies then all is fine. 

USA citizen deaths? IIWII