09-29-2020, 03:08 AM
It seems we can have a vaccine with low efficacy and distribute widely in the near term. Or, we can have a vaccine with high efficacy that will take a long time to distribute widely.
For those looking to have political victories more than they care about actually addressing the problem in a meaningful way, the choice will be obvious. It sets up like the scene in Jaws where the Amity Mayor declares victory after a Tiger Shark was caught, when the “man eating” Great White Shark was the problem and still at large, to justify opening the beaches on July 4. Then the kid is killed and his mother slaps the Mayor after she learns the Mayor knew the real problem shark was not addressed before the beaches were opened.
Is a vaccine that is 50% effective worth distributing, when if we wait a few months more, one with 80% efficacy is widely available? That extra 30% is the difference between on way to effective virus elimination and it still being a problem even after widely distributed vaccine is taken by masses.
For me, it would be very bad to go with the lower efficacy option that can be distributed right away, because not only will it not be as effective as necessary, a vaccine that doesn’t work will make it more likely people won’t get the next higher efficacy one, and may also lead to more people questioning other vaccines across the board, when the reality is they shouldn’t trust political figures.
Would the WHO or FDA endorse a 50% effective vaccine today, when an 80% effective one is a few months away? I honestly don’t know. This in and of itself is pretty f*cking scary.
For those looking to have political victories more than they care about actually addressing the problem in a meaningful way, the choice will be obvious. It sets up like the scene in Jaws where the Amity Mayor declares victory after a Tiger Shark was caught, when the “man eating” Great White Shark was the problem and still at large, to justify opening the beaches on July 4. Then the kid is killed and his mother slaps the Mayor after she learns the Mayor knew the real problem shark was not addressed before the beaches were opened.
Is a vaccine that is 50% effective worth distributing, when if we wait a few months more, one with 80% efficacy is widely available? That extra 30% is the difference between on way to effective virus elimination and it still being a problem even after widely distributed vaccine is taken by masses.
For me, it would be very bad to go with the lower efficacy option that can be distributed right away, because not only will it not be as effective as necessary, a vaccine that doesn’t work will make it more likely people won’t get the next higher efficacy one, and may also lead to more people questioning other vaccines across the board, when the reality is they shouldn’t trust political figures.
Would the WHO or FDA endorse a 50% effective vaccine today, when an 80% effective one is a few months away? I honestly don’t know. This in and of itself is pretty f*cking scary.