[magnus]

How is this going to look to historians 50 years in the future? Or 500? 

Depends on who is writing that history.  Just look at the change in the stories surrounding Christopher Columbus.

I don't know the answers to any of these questions. I suspect that the winners are going to be those nations and societies that continued to experiment with various forms of social distancing, while resisting the impulse to drastic shutdowns. I THINK that's the US and most of the West.

The current winner appears to be the country that had the most drastic of shutdowns.

[magnus]

How is this going to look to historians 50 years in the future? Or 500? 

Depends on who is writing that history.  Just look at the change in the stories surrounding Christopher Columbus.

I don't know the answers to any of these questions. I suspect that the winners are going to be those nations and societies that continued to experiment with various forms of social distancing, while resisting the impulse to drastic shutdowns. I THINK that's the US and most of the West.

The current winner appears to be the country that had the most drastic of shutdowns.