[BostonCard]

I don't think that's true.  The current winners are countries that had a very robust public health system going in (in part due to SARS) and were able to maintain the pandemic under control without shutting down.  Taiwan, despite being close to the epicenter of the pandemic, remained more or less open but has seen 0.03 deaths per 100,000 and a just 1.4% fall in GDP.  South Korea and Germany have also done pretty well by that metric, though restrictions on movement and the hit to GDP in Germany has been higher.

New Zealand is a good case example of a country that imposed a harsh lockdown under the belief that it could keep the virus from entering the country.  Though it has largely succeeded (notwithstanding a recent outbreak), its economy shrank by 12.2% in the second quarter.  Some of that is not its fault; its a country very dependent on tourism and that was going to come to a screeching halt regardless, but still, for New Zealand the lockdown may have been disproportionately harsh and caused an unnecessary hit in GDP.

But by and large, I thin the hit to GDP is going to be strongly proportional to the extent of the outbreak, and less so to the degree of lockdown (once you adjust for the fact that countries with worse pandemics, like Spain and Italy were forced to lock down harder).

BC

[BostonCard]

I don't think that's true.  The current winners are countries that had a very robust public health system going in (in part due to SARS) and were able to maintain the pandemic under control without shutting down.  Taiwan, despite being close to the epicenter of the pandemic, remained more or less open but has seen 0.03 deaths per 100,000 and a just 1.4% fall in GDP.  South Korea and Germany have also done pretty well by that metric, though restrictions on movement and the hit to GDP in Germany has been higher.

New Zealand is a good case example of a country that imposed a harsh lockdown under the belief that it could keep the virus from entering the country.  Though it has largely succeeded (notwithstanding a recent outbreak), its economy shrank by 12.2% in the second quarter.  Some of that is not its fault; its a country very dependent on tourism and that was going to come to a screeching halt regardless, but still, for New Zealand the lockdown may have been disproportionately harsh and caused an unnecessary hit in GDP.

But by and large, I thin the hit to GDP is going to be strongly proportional to the extent of the outbreak, and less so to the degree of lockdown (once you adjust for the fact that countries with worse pandemics, like Spain and Italy were forced to lock down harder).

BC