09-30-2020, 03:33 PM
Sweden continues to be the Rorschach test of COVID-19 strategies, with people using the experience to ‘see’ whatever position they start out with. “The Swedish experience proves that lockdowns are a disaster!” “The Swedish experience proves that lack of lockdowns are a disaster!” I see plenty of articles comparing Sweden to the general EU as Mick is doing, but if you really want to use the Swedish experience as comparative proof you would look at relevant comparators. Italy, Spain, France, etc. have nothing to do with Sweden in terms of pandemic timing, social customs, or economy. BostonCard is spot-on -- Denmark is the most likely appropriate comparator across most axes, and with a complete lockdown that started March 11 a good policy comparator, but Norway and Finland are also useful comparators who took blunt lockdown measures.
The Swedish experience hasn’t been a disaster, particularly compared to the poorly managed situations in many other countries including the UK and US; and Sweden may look relatively good when all is said and done because as noted above it’s still too early to write history. But so far Sweden provides good comparative evidence versus its peers that taking a more lax approach to the virus had as much or more economic damage than taking stringent measures (at least in the initial wave), with higher mortality.
The Swedish experience hasn’t been a disaster, particularly compared to the poorly managed situations in many other countries including the UK and US; and Sweden may look relatively good when all is said and done because as noted above it’s still too early to write history. But so far Sweden provides good comparative evidence versus its peers that taking a more lax approach to the virus had as much or more economic damage than taking stringent measures (at least in the initial wave), with higher mortality.