10-03-2020, 02:03 AM
Regarding the possibility that Trump is too sick to tweet: If this were true, the timeline doesn't seem right. Roughly, the time line is
Exposure: Day 0
Infectious: Day 2.5
Symptoms: Day 5
Respiratory distress: Day 10
If we guess that he is in some sort of severe distress, corresponding to what happens usually around day 10, then I have to wonder about his testing status.
If respiratory distress hit on Friday (10/2), then he should have tested positive any day of the past 7 days(since 9/25), more or less. I presume the positive test we know about was given on Wednesday (9/30). Right now, I'd guess that was a second positive test (run as a confirmation to avoid announcing a potential false positive), where we weren't informed of a positive test on Tuesday (9/29).
Even so, that makes for several days (9/26 through 9/28 inclusive) where he likely wasn't tested, or I'd have to believe he got a false negative.
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On the other hand, if the situation is that symptoms were first noticed on Friday (and any conjecture of his being too sick to tweet is overblown), then he would have likely only tested positive first on Tuesday or Wednesday, which is in line with the announced positive test.
Exposure: Day 0
Infectious: Day 2.5
Symptoms: Day 5
Respiratory distress: Day 10
If we guess that he is in some sort of severe distress, corresponding to what happens usually around day 10, then I have to wonder about his testing status.
If respiratory distress hit on Friday (10/2), then he should have tested positive any day of the past 7 days(since 9/25), more or less. I presume the positive test we know about was given on Wednesday (9/30). Right now, I'd guess that was a second positive test (run as a confirmation to avoid announcing a potential false positive), where we weren't informed of a positive test on Tuesday (9/29).
Even so, that makes for several days (9/26 through 9/28 inclusive) where he likely wasn't tested, or I'd have to believe he got a false negative.
----
On the other hand, if the situation is that symptoms were first noticed on Friday (and any conjecture of his being too sick to tweet is overblown), then he would have likely only tested positive first on Tuesday or Wednesday, which is in line with the announced positive test.
