[BostonCard]

One thing I've noticed is that the virus is very capricious, and frequently defies prediction.  I think it is more probable than not that we will see another big outbreak over the winter, perhaps worse than what we saw in the summer.  That being said, I have low confidence in that prediction, and I wouldn't be shocked if the we continue as we have, with waxing and waning infections that don't have any clearly identifiable pattern.  I think at least part of that is that the virus is driven in large part by super-spreader events, and these things are stochastic.  You have to have the right person (a person capable of super-spreading), at the right time (at or near their peak infectiousness but before they become symptomatic), in the right venue (an enclosed area with lots of people).

BC

[BostonCard]

One thing I've noticed is that the virus is very capricious, and frequently defies prediction.  I think it is more probable than not that we will see another big outbreak over the winter, perhaps worse than what we saw in the summer.  That being said, I have low confidence in that prediction, and I wouldn't be shocked if the we continue as we have, with waxing and waning infections that don't have any clearly identifiable pattern.  I think at least part of that is that the virus is driven in large part by super-spreader events, and these things are stochastic.  You have to have the right person (a person capable of super-spreading), at the right time (at or near their peak infectiousness but before they become symptomatic), in the right venue (an enclosed area with lots of people).

BC