[BostonCard]

I think the probability that the Democrats manage to do any of the above is slim to none.  Right now they are more likely than not to capture the senate, but if they do so, they will either have a 50/50 split (with Harris breaking the tie) or 51/49.  They are unlikely to have the majorities they will require to overcome resistance by swing state senators like Joe Manchin or institutionalists like Dianne Feinstein and Pat Leahy who have said they want to bring back the blue slips that would bring back the ability of home state senators to withhold consent for judicial nominees in the state.  It is worth noting that not a single Obama nominated justice to the Fifth Circuit court of appeals made it past Ted Cruz and John Cornyn, despite two seats being open in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

For Democrats to do away with the filibuster, they would need to capture at least 53, and probably 54 or more senate seats, a number that is in the tail end of the probability distribution.  For them to pack the court, I think the number would be even higher, or the court would have to start significantly frustrating their legislative agenda (which in any case will probably be much less ambitious than opponents fear).  Let's remember that the Democrats had 60 (and, when they lost the special election in Massachusetts, 59) Senate seats in 2009 and they managed to approve PPACA by the skin of their teeth.

BC

[BostonCard]

I think the probability that the Democrats manage to do any of the above is slim to none.  Right now they are more likely than not to capture the senate, but if they do so, they will either have a 50/50 split (with Harris breaking the tie) or 51/49.  They are unlikely to have the majorities they will require to overcome resistance by swing state senators like Joe Manchin or institutionalists like Dianne Feinstein and Pat Leahy who have said they want to bring back the blue slips that would bring back the ability of home state senators to withhold consent for judicial nominees in the state.  It is worth noting that not a single Obama nominated justice to the Fifth Circuit court of appeals made it past Ted Cruz and John Cornyn, despite two seats being open in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

For Democrats to do away with the filibuster, they would need to capture at least 53, and probably 54 or more senate seats, a number that is in the tail end of the probability distribution.  For them to pack the court, I think the number would be even higher, or the court would have to start significantly frustrating their legislative agenda (which in any case will probably be much less ambitious than opponents fear).  Let's remember that the Democrats had 60 (and, when they lost the special election in Massachusetts, 59) Senate seats in 2009 and they managed to approve PPACA by the skin of their teeth.

BC