[magnus]

My own thought is that the drastic lockdown has actually impeded the march towards the best (i.e., best balanced) policy. It bred a cynicism in a fundamentally anti-authoritarian society that lingers on with regard to much more sane and sensible policy. The dreadful leadership of Trump (since early March) contributes to this, but Trump's personality is not the only factor. 

I think if we didn't have a drastic lockdown, we would have had much higher death tolls in the first wave.  People would not have reacted as quickly, the virus would have had another few weeks to months to spread unencumbered which would have led to more NYCs (though perhaps not at the same extreme due to density differences).  Telling people they need to social distance and wear masks is hard enough with the drastic lockdown step, but without it, a lot of the folks in the middle of the spectrum (especially those who don't pay attention to the news), would have not seen the urgency to change behavior.  Closing schools and businesses is probably one of the most effective ways to reach everyone and show the serious nature rather than it being "just another flu".

If we would have had a higher initial death toll, perhaps that would have helped prevent/delay a second/nth wave, but not sure that's what we want.

[magnus]

My own thought is that the drastic lockdown has actually impeded the march towards the best (i.e., best balanced) policy. It bred a cynicism in a fundamentally anti-authoritarian society that lingers on with regard to much more sane and sensible policy. The dreadful leadership of Trump (since early March) contributes to this, but Trump's personality is not the only factor. 

I think if we didn't have a drastic lockdown, we would have had much higher death tolls in the first wave.  People would not have reacted as quickly, the virus would have had another few weeks to months to spread unencumbered which would have led to more NYCs (though perhaps not at the same extreme due to density differences).  Telling people they need to social distance and wear masks is hard enough with the drastic lockdown step, but without it, a lot of the folks in the middle of the spectrum (especially those who don't pay attention to the news), would have not seen the urgency to change behavior.  Closing schools and businesses is probably one of the most effective ways to reach everyone and show the serious nature rather than it being "just another flu".

If we would have had a higher initial death toll, perhaps that would have helped prevent/delay a second/nth wave, but not sure that's what we want.