[Farm93]

If we do all of that we might be able to get to a place where our infection and fatality rates for the next 6 months are almost as good as Germany's rates.   


OK, we probably will not be as good as Germany, but hate to say let's try in this wave to beat Italy or France.   :(

Although Germany's infection rates are significantly lower than in the US, the rates are jumping. Using Worldometers numbers, on the last 3 days (including today),  German new cases per 100K has been 8.5, 12.5 and 14.9. On the same days, the US has had 19.0, 19.5 and 22.6. 

Germany's deaths per million have been much lower than US. On the last three days, German Covid death rate per million was 0.668, 0.525 and 0.537. In the US, the Covid death rate per million was 2.900, 3.731 and 2.964.

Note: This post was originally done an hour before the end of the day (GMT). It has been updated to reflect more numbers that came in at end of day and corrections to the previous two days that were also posted late in the day. Unfortunately, today turned out to be the fourth highest day for new cases in US, only 4675  less than the record set on July 24.

And remember - October in Germany is rather cold. 
There are a lot of places in the USA that won't see coronavirus friendly conditions like that until November with numbers emerging in December.
Octoberfest traditions in Germany, even if dramatically cut down, could show big numbers in November.
Thanksgiving traditions probably will appear in the USA numbers in December.
Therefore, better to measure fall/winter success relative to another place by March 31 2021 rather than day to day.

[Farm93]

If we do all of that we might be able to get to a place where our infection and fatality rates for the next 6 months are almost as good as Germany's rates.   


OK, we probably will not be as good as Germany, but hate to say let's try in this wave to beat Italy or France.   :(

Although Germany's infection rates are significantly lower than in the US, the rates are jumping. Using Worldometers numbers, on the last 3 days (including today),  German new cases per 100K has been 8.5, 12.5 and 14.9. On the same days, the US has had 19.0, 19.5 and 22.6. 

Germany's deaths per million have been much lower than US. On the last three days, German Covid death rate per million was 0.668, 0.525 and 0.537. In the US, the Covid death rate per million was 2.900, 3.731 and 2.964.

Note: This post was originally done an hour before the end of the day (GMT). It has been updated to reflect more numbers that came in at end of day and corrections to the previous two days that were also posted late in the day. Unfortunately, today turned out to be the fourth highest day for new cases in US, only 4675  less than the record set on July 24.

And remember - October in Germany is rather cold. 
There are a lot of places in the USA that won't see coronavirus friendly conditions like that until November with numbers emerging in December.
Octoberfest traditions in Germany, even if dramatically cut down, could show big numbers in November.
Thanksgiving traditions probably will appear in the USA numbers in December.
Therefore, better to measure fall/winter success relative to another place by March 31 2021 rather than day to day.