According to the NYTimes Vaccine Tracker, the US has indeed contracted both Moderna and Pfizer for 100 million shots (which will provide only 50 million people each if 2 shots are required). Pfizer is slated to distribute the first doses"by December" and no date is listed for the Moderna vaccine, but I think it is late 2020 to early 2021. Novavax, which is in earlier Phase III, is also set to produce 100 million doses, but by early 2021. But you cannot go from this to "vaccines... will be available mid-to-late November."
1) This statement assumes both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will prove safe and effective. That'd be great if that turns out to be the case, but we don't know yet. The US government also had contracts with, for example, the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine. And to my understanding, 3 of the earliest vaccine trials to reach Phase 3 have been paused (Oxford/Astra-Zeneca, Johnson & Innovio). So sure, hopefully, both Moderna and Pfizer will both prove safe and effective, but we don't know yet and we certainly can't assume this.
For context, Pfizer's plan is to report results after 32(?) people are positive for Covid out of their Phase 3 trial, and then they planned to look up who those people who (vaccinated vs. placebo) and announce preliminary results. 32 people! Are you ready to get injected with that much data?
I wouldn't recommend anyone -- not even my elderly parents -- accept a vaccine with so little safety data.
Incidentally, when the earliest scraps of preliminary data are released, get ready for Trump to demand the vaccines be authorized and distributed immediately, and when he is rebuked, I expect him to complain of being sabotaged by the Deep State.
However, I'm very glad the US government has invested in these companies to accelerate production even before we know if they work. I don't mind if we end up having wasted over a $1 billion on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, for example, because that was always part of the accepted strategy.
2) Just because you have a contract for 100 million doses by the end of the year, even if it proves safe and effective, doesn't mean you'll get 100 million doses. A contract doesn't guarantee there won't be supply chain shortages and production hiccups. It's like the contract Newsom signed for PPE, contingent upon the N95 masks getting certified. If they fail to get certified, great, you are off the hook, but you are still desperate. If PFizer turns around and says it'll take 3 more months to deliver that quantity and they still want the same amount of money, they have the leverage.
But assuming these companies can hit their production targets, I'd be VERY GLAD if they produce and deliver the vaccines even before they've been authorized to be used. Because that means the government can start distributing it.
3) Which takes us to distribution. Trump has said it's been handed off to the military, which has the benefit of being less political, less partisan, lifetime public servants with a competence in this field. But it doesn't mean things are going to go quickly and smoothly. I expect generally it'll take 1-4 months between "vaccines delivered to federal government" to "vaccine and all necessary shots, vials, supplies have been delivered to the end medical facility which is ready to give shots." Hospitals will be able to give their own employees shots very quickly, but it could take a long time before even a high-priority non-medical worker can make an appointment and walk in to get their shot.
4) On top of that, expect many many doses -- if people want them -- to just sort of disappear. Let's say doses are delivered to Santa Clara County for essential workers. Sure, doctors and nurses. But what about receptionists, security workers, janitors and accountants who work in the medical facilities? They'll all get shots. The US military is high priority to get shots, but what about civilian workers? There are a brobdingnagian number of civilians who work on bases. I assume they'll get shots too. And while the federal government is vaccinating soldiers, what about national guard, federal courts, postal workers? And while local governments are vaccinating police, firefighters and EMTs, what about dispatch operators, court clerks, librarians, airport painting crews...
Don't hold your breath. My personal expectation is -- assuming people want the vaccine -- assume the first 200 million doses (100 million people) will just disappear in government and healthcare at all levels. Then take where your priority should be among Americans, and assume they have to produce and distribute that much X 1.5. Then add 1-3 months for it to get to your local clinic and for them to be ready to see you.
But don't worry, we have the most competent federal government in the history of mankind, so I'm sure the process will go smoothly and incredibly transparently. Because if there's one word to describe the federal government during the last 4 years, it's competence and transparency, like with tax returns and conversations with Putin.
The sort of "good news" -- if 60% people don't want to take the vaccine due to a lack of positive data, they may may be available much, much more quickly because no one else wants it.
Or, if there is a high demand and there is a very long wait, by the time you can get vaccinated, there will be a lot more safety data.
1) This statement assumes both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will prove safe and effective. That'd be great if that turns out to be the case, but we don't know yet. The US government also had contracts with, for example, the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine. And to my understanding, 3 of the earliest vaccine trials to reach Phase 3 have been paused (Oxford/Astra-Zeneca, Johnson & Innovio). So sure, hopefully, both Moderna and Pfizer will both prove safe and effective, but we don't know yet and we certainly can't assume this.
For context, Pfizer's plan is to report results after 32(?) people are positive for Covid out of their Phase 3 trial, and then they planned to look up who those people who (vaccinated vs. placebo) and announce preliminary results. 32 people! Are you ready to get injected with that much data?
I wouldn't recommend anyone -- not even my elderly parents -- accept a vaccine with so little safety data.
Incidentally, when the earliest scraps of preliminary data are released, get ready for Trump to demand the vaccines be authorized and distributed immediately, and when he is rebuked, I expect him to complain of being sabotaged by the Deep State.
However, I'm very glad the US government has invested in these companies to accelerate production even before we know if they work. I don't mind if we end up having wasted over a $1 billion on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, for example, because that was always part of the accepted strategy.
2) Just because you have a contract for 100 million doses by the end of the year, even if it proves safe and effective, doesn't mean you'll get 100 million doses. A contract doesn't guarantee there won't be supply chain shortages and production hiccups. It's like the contract Newsom signed for PPE, contingent upon the N95 masks getting certified. If they fail to get certified, great, you are off the hook, but you are still desperate. If PFizer turns around and says it'll take 3 more months to deliver that quantity and they still want the same amount of money, they have the leverage.
But assuming these companies can hit their production targets, I'd be VERY GLAD if they produce and deliver the vaccines even before they've been authorized to be used. Because that means the government can start distributing it.
3) Which takes us to distribution. Trump has said it's been handed off to the military, which has the benefit of being less political, less partisan, lifetime public servants with a competence in this field. But it doesn't mean things are going to go quickly and smoothly. I expect generally it'll take 1-4 months between "vaccines delivered to federal government" to "vaccine and all necessary shots, vials, supplies have been delivered to the end medical facility which is ready to give shots." Hospitals will be able to give their own employees shots very quickly, but it could take a long time before even a high-priority non-medical worker can make an appointment and walk in to get their shot.
4) On top of that, expect many many doses -- if people want them -- to just sort of disappear. Let's say doses are delivered to Santa Clara County for essential workers. Sure, doctors and nurses. But what about receptionists, security workers, janitors and accountants who work in the medical facilities? They'll all get shots. The US military is high priority to get shots, but what about civilian workers? There are a brobdingnagian number of civilians who work on bases. I assume they'll get shots too. And while the federal government is vaccinating soldiers, what about national guard, federal courts, postal workers? And while local governments are vaccinating police, firefighters and EMTs, what about dispatch operators, court clerks, librarians, airport painting crews...
Don't hold your breath. My personal expectation is -- assuming people want the vaccine -- assume the first 200 million doses (100 million people) will just disappear in government and healthcare at all levels. Then take where your priority should be among Americans, and assume they have to produce and distribute that much X 1.5. Then add 1-3 months for it to get to your local clinic and for them to be ready to see you.
But don't worry, we have the most competent federal government in the history of mankind, so I'm sure the process will go smoothly and incredibly transparently. Because if there's one word to describe the federal government during the last 4 years, it's competence and transparency, like with tax returns and conversations with Putin.
The sort of "good news" -- if 60% people don't want to take the vaccine due to a lack of positive data, they may may be available much, much more quickly because no one else wants it.
Or, if there is a high demand and there is a very long wait, by the time you can get vaccinated, there will be a lot more safety data.