[Genuine Realist]

Greater numbers of comorbidities? Ok, screen for comorbidities on some agreed upon scale. If you have two individuals in the same category, they rate the same. Disregard race. You do not immunize a young African-American because he is African-American, and ignore an older Asian or Caucasian because of race. That just won't do.

I ran my data through the QCOVID risk prediction algorithm, and got the following:
COVID associated death
0.0027%
1 in 37037
COVID associated hospital admission
0.0433%
1 in 2309

I ran the same exact risk profile, except that I made myself Caribbean (this was derived in the UK, so race/ethnicity categories are somewhat different there), and I get the following:

COVID associated death
0.0055%
1 in 18182
COVID associated hospital admission
0.099%
1 in 1010

In other words, just about twice the risk of death and hospitalization, even though everything else (age, sex, height, weight, risk factors) were exactly identical.  Again, this is UK data and UK prediction algorithm, but the exact same trend would be found if you derived one for the US.  The bottom line is that there is likely an unmeasured factor that is captured by race that is not captured by our conventional risk factors.  Whether that is enough to survive a legal challenge, I don't know, but as of right now, Black and Hispanic patients with COVID-19 have a higher risk of dying than White patients, even with the same risk factors.

BC

That is very interesting.  But are you sure the conclusion you draw is the only one to draw from the data?  It seems to me it's possible that a higher % of the Latino (or AA) community either works in indispensable, in-person workforces or lives in close quarters, or both.  If that's true, then is it possible that race is simply a byproduct of non-race-based risk factors.  BTW, if your conclusion is the correct one, then I think Newsom's distribution plan might pass constitutional muster - it strikes me as a compelling rationale to support a government policy based on race.

Those of you who followed me on the CEB remember a long standing belief that class and social standing are far more pertinent factors of discrimination in this society than race. We are at that point again.

Has anyone suggested an actual genetic link to heightened minority vulnerability?  Or some equivalent? It would have to be pretty unusual to afflict ethnic minorities in general - Hispanic and African American, particularly given the actual variety of racial background in this country.

If not, we are looking at the sociological factors mentioned, particularly occupation (I would guess). If you don't filter on the basis of those, disregarding race, you create some pretty disturbing inconsistencies in outcomes. Although the poor are disproportionately minority, there are plenty of success stories among them. If you use race as the simple (minded) criteria, you have the unpleasant spectacle of some minority individual who lives in an affluent suburb and works at home, outranking a grocery worker of the 'wrong' ethnicity who lives in a less affluent area and actually takes the risk of overexposure. (Joe Biden's naive congratulation to the Black women who did store restocking illustrates the point - there were plenty of others.)

That won't do. Society is too varied. Better to dispense with the broad category and  base your rankings on what individuals as individuals actually do and the way they actually live, which is not all that tough - payroll records and zip codes. If that is the reason why minorities have suffered more, the preference is built into the filter. But race as such? The obsessive racial consciousness that afflicts our society, and particularly the Democratic Party, rears its ugly head.

We have not even discussed the bizarre preference for rural communities and jaw-dropping preference for prisoners.

[Genuine Realist]

Greater numbers of comorbidities? Ok, screen for comorbidities on some agreed upon scale. If you have two individuals in the same category, they rate the same. Disregard race. You do not immunize a young African-American because he is African-American, and ignore an older Asian or Caucasian because of race. That just won't do.

I ran my data through the QCOVID risk prediction algorithm, and got the following:
COVID associated death
0.0027%
1 in 37037
COVID associated hospital admission
0.0433%
1 in 2309

I ran the same exact risk profile, except that I made myself Caribbean (this was derived in the UK, so race/ethnicity categories are somewhat different there), and I get the following:

COVID associated death
0.0055%
1 in 18182
COVID associated hospital admission
0.099%
1 in 1010

In other words, just about twice the risk of death and hospitalization, even though everything else (age, sex, height, weight, risk factors) were exactly identical.  Again, this is UK data and UK prediction algorithm, but the exact same trend would be found if you derived one for the US.  The bottom line is that there is likely an unmeasured factor that is captured by race that is not captured by our conventional risk factors.  Whether that is enough to survive a legal challenge, I don't know, but as of right now, Black and Hispanic patients with COVID-19 have a higher risk of dying than White patients, even with the same risk factors.

BC

That is very interesting.  But are you sure the conclusion you draw is the only one to draw from the data?  It seems to me it's possible that a higher % of the Latino (or AA) community either works in indispensable, in-person workforces or lives in close quarters, or both.  If that's true, then is it possible that race is simply a byproduct of non-race-based risk factors.  BTW, if your conclusion is the correct one, then I think Newsom's distribution plan might pass constitutional muster - it strikes me as a compelling rationale to support a government policy based on race.

Those of you who followed me on the CEB remember a long standing belief that class and social standing are far more pertinent factors of discrimination in this society than race. We are at that point again.

Has anyone suggested an actual genetic link to heightened minority vulnerability?  Or some equivalent? It would have to be pretty unusual to afflict ethnic minorities in general - Hispanic and African American, particularly given the actual variety of racial background in this country.

If not, we are looking at the sociological factors mentioned, particularly occupation (I would guess). If you don't filter on the basis of those, disregarding race, you create some pretty disturbing inconsistencies in outcomes. Although the poor are disproportionately minority, there are plenty of success stories among them. If you use race as the simple (minded) criteria, you have the unpleasant spectacle of some minority individual who lives in an affluent suburb and works at home, outranking a grocery worker of the 'wrong' ethnicity who lives in a less affluent area and actually takes the risk of overexposure. (Joe Biden's naive congratulation to the Black women who did store restocking illustrates the point - there were plenty of others.)

That won't do. Society is too varied. Better to dispense with the broad category and  base your rankings on what individuals as individuals actually do and the way they actually live, which is not all that tough - payroll records and zip codes. If that is the reason why minorities have suffered more, the preference is built into the filter. But race as such? The obsessive racial consciousness that afflicts our society, and particularly the Democratic Party, rears its ugly head.

We have not even discussed the bizarre preference for rural communities and jaw-dropping preference for prisoners.