11-03-2020, 08:33 AM
That's not what "endemic" means. Chicken pox was an endemic virus in the US (until the vaccine nearly drove it out), but the vaccine was nonetheless completely successful. Endemic just means that the virus is locally prevalent and doesn't need to be re-imported from outside. Long after the pandemic wanes (with or without a virus) COVID-19 is almost certain to become endemic all over the world. As long as there are susceptible individuals who can continue to transmit the virus, we will have endemic COVID-19. The only way the virus doesn't become endemic is if vaccination is so successful that we manage to wipe out the virus, which has only been done with a handful of viruses ever.
No vaccine is 100% "full [sic] proof", but many vaccines are effective enough to drive down the prevalence of the virus and engender herd immunity. All viruses mutate, but that doesn't necessarily mean they escape vaccine immunogenicity. This can happen for a number of other reasons as well, including waning immunity. Think about having to have a tetanus vaccine every 5 - 10 years, or the recent recommendation that adults get revaccinated for pertussis.
So far, there is little evidence that mutations are allowing the virus to escape immune surveillance, but this is a virus that has only existed for less than a year. The virus will likely become endemic regardless; this does not necessarily mean that it will mutate enough to escape immune surveillance, or that a vaccine will not be effective. A vaccine may not confer lifelong immunity (in fact, I don't expect it to), but that has nothing to do with the virus becoming seasonal and endemic. It could well become seasonal for other reasons (less than 100% vaccine efficacy, people refusing to vaccinate, waning immunity). Although of course it would have been preferable for the virus to be brought under control early so that it never had a chance to become endemic, that train seems to have left the station as soon as infected people started leaving Wuhan. But we have managed to wipe out or nearly wipe out plenty of previously endemic viruses: smallpox, polio, measles (in the US), varicella zoster (chicken pox).
BC
No vaccine is 100% "full [sic] proof", but many vaccines are effective enough to drive down the prevalence of the virus and engender herd immunity. All viruses mutate, but that doesn't necessarily mean they escape vaccine immunogenicity. This can happen for a number of other reasons as well, including waning immunity. Think about having to have a tetanus vaccine every 5 - 10 years, or the recent recommendation that adults get revaccinated for pertussis.
So far, there is little evidence that mutations are allowing the virus to escape immune surveillance, but this is a virus that has only existed for less than a year. The virus will likely become endemic regardless; this does not necessarily mean that it will mutate enough to escape immune surveillance, or that a vaccine will not be effective. A vaccine may not confer lifelong immunity (in fact, I don't expect it to), but that has nothing to do with the virus becoming seasonal and endemic. It could well become seasonal for other reasons (less than 100% vaccine efficacy, people refusing to vaccinate, waning immunity). Although of course it would have been preferable for the virus to be brought under control early so that it never had a chance to become endemic, that train seems to have left the station as soon as infected people started leaving Wuhan. But we have managed to wipe out or nearly wipe out plenty of previously endemic viruses: smallpox, polio, measles (in the US), varicella zoster (chicken pox).
BC