11-04-2020, 07:59 PM
There were 15 states (or congressional districts) rated 99% win probability for BIden; he captured all 15.
There were 7 states or CDs rated as between 90 and 99% win probability for Biden (Oregon, NM, ME, CO, MN, WI, MI); he captured all 7.
There were three states with win probabilities between 75% and 90% (NH, NV, PA); he won one, is leading in one, and is trailing in one (but looks to come back and win PA).
There were six states/CDs (AZ, NE2, Florida, NC, ME2, and Georgia) where Biden was favored between 50% and 75%. He lost Florida and ME2, and will likely lose NC. He won NE2 and is on track to win AZ (it has been called by some, but not all media groups). Georgia is on a knife's edge, depending on how the outstanding ballots come in.
There were three states (OH, IA, TX) where Trump was favored to win between 50% and 75% of the time. He won all three.
There were three states (MT, SC, AK) where Trump was favored to win between 75% and 90% of the time. He won all three.
There were nine states where Trump was favored to win between 90% and 99% of the time; he won all of them.
Trump was favored in the remaining 10 states/CDs by 99% or more and obviously he won all of them.
The percentages seem to have been well-calibrated, pending the outcomes of PA and NV.
BC
There were 7 states or CDs rated as between 90 and 99% win probability for Biden (Oregon, NM, ME, CO, MN, WI, MI); he captured all 7.
There were three states with win probabilities between 75% and 90% (NH, NV, PA); he won one, is leading in one, and is trailing in one (but looks to come back and win PA).
There were six states/CDs (AZ, NE2, Florida, NC, ME2, and Georgia) where Biden was favored between 50% and 75%. He lost Florida and ME2, and will likely lose NC. He won NE2 and is on track to win AZ (it has been called by some, but not all media groups). Georgia is on a knife's edge, depending on how the outstanding ballots come in.
There were three states (OH, IA, TX) where Trump was favored to win between 50% and 75% of the time. He won all three.
There were three states (MT, SC, AK) where Trump was favored to win between 75% and 90% of the time. He won all three.
There were nine states where Trump was favored to win between 90% and 99% of the time; he won all of them.
Trump was favored in the remaining 10 states/CDs by 99% or more and obviously he won all of them.
The percentages seem to have been well-calibrated, pending the outcomes of PA and NV.
BC