11-04-2020, 08:55 PM
The pollsters took steps to corrects some of the factors for the miss in 2016 but new factors and shifts in this cycle caused them new problems.
The polls were likely affected by the increased turnout which may have leaned more Trump than anticipated. The heavily Cuban vote in South Florida was even more of a factor this time and was not entirely offset by shifts toward Biden near Jacksonville and in northern Florida.
Using polls to call outcomes has limited use in any case. The more important use is to detect trends that can help politicians to tailor their messages and advertising to certain demographics. The polls the general public sees will never be detailed enough to make important personal decisions. For people who have big financial interests in the outcome, they have PACS and lobbyists.
The polls were likely affected by the increased turnout which may have leaned more Trump than anticipated. The heavily Cuban vote in South Florida was even more of a factor this time and was not entirely offset by shifts toward Biden near Jacksonville and in northern Florida.
Using polls to call outcomes has limited use in any case. The more important use is to detect trends that can help politicians to tailor their messages and advertising to certain demographics. The polls the general public sees will never be detailed enough to make important personal decisions. For people who have big financial interests in the outcome, they have PACS and lobbyists.