11-05-2020, 03:24 PM
Polling in 2012 missed in the opposite direction (Obama overperformed his polls). Since it wasn't material to the outcome, nobody cared. Democrats underperformed the polls in both 2004 and 2008, but it was a 1 point miss, and Gore actually did slightly better than his polling in 2000, but it was not enough to win the general.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...all-right/
It will be interesting to see what the final margins are. Biden is currently leading by 2.7 points, which would be significantly worse than polls, but a lot of the outstanding vote comes from very blue areas. For example, about 26% of the vote has not been reported in California, and that is going about 2:1 for Biden. We will see what things look like when all is said and done.
BC
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...all-right/
It will be interesting to see what the final margins are. Biden is currently leading by 2.7 points, which would be significantly worse than polls, but a lot of the outstanding vote comes from very blue areas. For example, about 26% of the vote has not been reported in California, and that is going about 2:1 for Biden. We will see what things look like when all is said and done.
BC