11-07-2020, 12:33 PM
(11-05-2020, 03:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Polling in 2012 missed in the opposite direction (Obama overperformed his polls). Since it wasn't material to the outcome, nobody cared. Democrats underperformed the polls in both 2004 and 2008, but it was a 1 point miss, and Gore actually did slightly better than his polling in 2000, but it was not enough to win the general.The polls have too binary a character. I don't think the American people are happy with the descent into rancid ideology, and the election showed it.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...all-right/
It will be interesting to see what the final margins are. Biden is currently leading by 2.7 points, which would be significantly worse than polls, but a lot of the outstanding vote comes from very blue areas. For example, about 26% of the vote has not been reported in California, and that is going about 2:1 for Biden. We will see what things look like when all is said and done.
BC
This was a really good election from my point of view, almost perfect if one Georgia Senate rate goes GOP. (I regret the loss of John James from Michigan. The nation needs more African-American Republicans, and the guy who won is complete non-entity.
Relative to Covid, I don't expect any magic answers from Biden. I hope the nation doesn't. I do expect a thousand percent uptick in mora; leadership.
I wouldn't give you two cents for all your fancy rules if, behind them, they didn't have a little bit of plain, ordinary, everyday kindness - yeah, and a little looking out for the other fella, too.